Posted on 12/03/2003 10:59:29 AM PST by Paul Ross
SENIOR BUSH ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS may be engineering a dramatic and dangerous shift in American policy toward Taiwan as a gift to the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who is visiting the United States next week. There are two elements of this proposed policy change, both of which favor Beijing at the expense of democratic Taiwan, and one of which may actually encourage Beijing to take military action against Taiwan. Both policy changes are being pushed by the staff of the National Security Council over the objections, we understand, of both the Departments of State and Defense.
First, according to numerous government sources, the senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, James Moriarty, and Doug Paal, the de facto U.S. ambassador to Taiwan, are urging President Bush to declare, privately and perhaps publicly, that the United States opposes Taiwan's independence. This would be a significant change in America's so-called "One-China Policy," a change very much in Beijing's favor.
Until now, the American position on Taiwan's independence has been agnostic. American presidents have said they do not support independence but have also insisted that the cross-Strait issue be settled peacefully and by common agreement of the two sides. The point was that no solution should be imposed on either side. It was also to leave open the possibility that both sides might agree on independence, as indeed might occur were mainland China ever to become democratic (just as Moscow let go of Ukraine after the fall of communism in Russia). If the Bush administration changes its policy, it will place the United States in opposition to Taiwanese independence even under that scenario. Above all, however, if the administration makes this change, it will strike a severe blow against the vibrant Taiwanese democracy in a kow-tow to Beijing. After the president's recent stirring remarks in favor of democracy worldwide, this pcore principle in foreign policy.
Moriarty's second proposal is even more worrying. He proposes the United States declare that it will not defend Taiwan if Beijing launches a military attack on the island in response to a "provocation," i.e., some action or statement by Taiwan that Beijing determines moves in the direction of independence. This proposal, if adopted by the administration, could prove disastrous on several grounds. First of all, it would appear to run counter to the Taiwan Relations Act passed by Congress in 1979. Indeed, it may constitute an effort by the Bush administration in effect to repeal that law by executive fiat. The Act makes it U.S. policy that there should be a peaceful resolution of the dispute between China and Taiwan. But, by suggesting that there may be "legitimate" grounds for China to take offense, this new declaration would condone the very action the law intends to prevent. This would be all the more remarkable given that less than two years ago President Bush reaffirmed the American commitment to Taiwan by declaring that the United States would do "whatever it took" to defend Taiwan.
Second, this proposed policy shift would make war in the Strait more likely, not less. If the United States tells Beijing that it will not defend Taiwan in the event of a "provocation," this can only serve as an inducement to Beijing to threaten to use force, or perhaps actually to use force, on any occasion that Beijing deems Taiwan's behavior "provocative." After all, what constitutes a "provocation"? Beijing believes Taiwan's current status of de facto independence is already unacceptable.
Of course, the reason behind the latest maneuverings within the Bush administration is the recent decision by the present government of Taiwan to hold national referenda on a variety of issues this spring. Beijing fears that Taiwan may eventually decide to hold a referendum on subjects pertaining to independence. China has therefore denounced all referenda on any subject as "provocative." They have even warned darkly of possible "consequences" should Taiwan go ahead with the referenda. In addition, senior Chinese officials have repeatedly demanded that the Bush administration use American pressure to force Taiwan to abandon all referendum plans.
It appears that the Bush administration has at least partly caved to Beijing's pressure. Moriarty recently traveled to Taipei to deliver a stern warning against holding any referendum on any subject. Now he wants the administration to offer assurances to Premier Wen that the United States will indeed oppose referenda in Taiwan. This means, in turn, that the administration will effectively be agreeing with Beijing that such referenda constitute a "provocation." So what happens when Taiwan goes ahead and holds its referendum this spring, as it surely will?
We hope the Bush administration will pull back from this catastrophic change of course. The Clinton administration bent to China on the issue of Taiwan as well, but never as dangerously as senior Bush administration officials are now proposing. Nor so immorally. Taiwan is a thriving democracy. The Beijing government remains a tyranny. Will the Bush administration stifle democracy in Taiwan--actually demanding that it not hold popular votes -- to curry favor with the dictatorship?
If it is in fact what GWB does, (which I would never expect) ...God help us all.
James F. Moriarty
Senior Director for Asian Affairs
National Security Council
James F. Moriarty was officially named Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asian Affairs on April 19, 2002, after assuming the position of Acting Senior Director for Asian Affairs in January 2002. He began his career at the NSC in July 2001 as the Director for Asian Affairs.
Moriarty’s involvement in Asian affairs began when he served as Deputy Chief of the U.S. Embassy’s political section in Beijing, China. Later he served as the Chief of the General Affairs (Political) Section of the American Institute in Taiwan. He also has served at U.S. embassies in Morocco and Pakistan. In Washington, Mr. Moriarty has been the director of the Mozambique desk, a Nigeria analyst and deputy director of the Office of United Nations Political Affairs in the State’s Department.
A graduate of Dartmouth College and originally from Ware, Massachusetts, Moriarty entered the Foreign Service as a political officer in 1975. He has received two individual Superior Honor Awards (in 1993 and 2000) along with several other awards from the State Department.
hmmm ... Carter/Clinton devote' ?
From Taiwan news Aug 3 1999
....Despite Albright's cordial meeting in Singapore with Tang last week, tensions between Washington and Beijing persist.
China's Foreign Ministry today summoned the No. 2 U.S. diplomat in Beijing, James Moriarty, to protest proposed American weapons sales to Taiwan.
It looks as though during the dust ups in the mid to late 90's he was in Bejing. Stockholm syndrome by proxie?
But if he lets these elements sway him, then he has made a big mistake.
I believe there is no way Bush would or will go for this.
If he does, then the eventual war we face will be orders of magnitude worse because we will have emboldened the beast just as Hitler was emboldened by the Rheinland, and Checkesolvakia before WW II.
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