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The third-party skinny in the Senate races:

Remember Al Gore's surge over the prior weekend? A big chunk of that was people who were going to vote for Nader "holding their nose" and voting for Gore. This is a recurrent phenomenon with third-party candidates. (The opposite happens in the rare case when the third-party candidate has a real chance of winning, e.g., Ventura in Minnesota four years ago.)

This is why Colorado is in better shape than it looks. The LP candidate in that race is currently registering 4-6 percent (usually these respondents lumped into "undecided"). This is why Allard and Strickland are both "stuck" in the mid-40s, and why Allard in particular is below 50. Typically, in close elections, disaffected conservatives "come home" to the Republican candidate. A 2-3 point shift from the LP candidate to Allard at the last minute should push him over the top.

A similar thing is going on in NH, with both an LP candidate and a write-in campaign for Bob Smith. Sununu should likewise benefit from a last minute "surge" of people switching from voting with their heart to voting with their brain.

As for Georgia, bear in mind that Max Cleland was only elected six years ago by a vote of 49 to 48 to 3. I don't see the LP candidate doing as well this year as last. True, Cleland is now the incumbant, and there's some advantage to that. But, there are reasons to believe Cleland has not endeared himself with the voters of the state. He is trying to confuse "swing voters" into believing he is a conservative Democrat (like Zell Miller) and that he often votes with the President. Cleland may believe the voters are are stupid in Georgia, but I don't believe they're THAT stupid.

As for Minnesota, I just don't think anybody can make a good prediction for the Senate race because of the three-man race of Governor. A lot of people will be voting, and voting specifically for an independent for Governor. The moderate Republican aligns better with independent Tim Penny, than does the left-wing Democrat Wellstone. However, all things considered, I would not venture a guess.

In Louisiana, another liberal Democrat is playing "trick or treat" with the voter, misrepresenting herself as a conservative Democrat. She is running against three Republicans in Louisiana's unique voting system, and is conceeded to finish first. The question is, will she finish ahead of 50 percent, and be thrown into a run-off. I think the momemtum would be with the Republican in a run-off IF the Republicans win control of the Senate on election day.

Regarding South Dakota and New Jersey, I don't have any third-party skinny, but I will say following: Two years ago, Corzine defeated Frank 51 to 49 percent. Why should Lautenberg be considered a heavy favorite? And, in South Dakota, Johnson has won election statewide several times, six years ago as a Senator, and prior to that as a Congressman. Thune has also won statewide election. Plus, the polls show the Congressional race as close as they show the Senate race.

To sum it all up:

Republicans slightly favored to keep CO and NH and to win MO.

Toss-up in SD and MN.

Democrats ever so slightly favored to win AR.

Democrats slightly favored to keep GA and NJ.

AND, if Landrieu is in a run-off, and the Republicans have already won control of the Senate, possible toss-up in LA.

My prediction on is a two-pointer for the Republicans.