Posted on 04/05/2002 7:58:01 AM PST by Dan from Michigan
Analysts: Candidate faces tough battle to upset Whitmer
By LINDSAY FREDERICKSON
The State News
Williamston - In a United Methodist church in his hometown, Larry Ward officially kicked off his campaign Thursday night in what many call an uphill climb against state House incumbent Gretchen Whitmer.
Ward is the only Republican to file so far in the race for the 70th District House seat held by Whitmer, an East Lansing Democrat. His campaign manager, no-preference sophomore Jason Miller, said a GOP representative could better serve the MSU community.
“MSU will have a unique opportunity to close the funding gap between MSU and U of M,” Miller said. “If we get more funding, tuition goes down. Democrats will be in the minority again, and Republicans will have control of committees.”
Whitmer serves on the GOP-controlled House Appropriations Subcommittee on Higher Education. She filed her intent to run for re-election this week.
Both candidates said they plan to court the vote of the district, which includes MSU.
“Students were a big part of my success in 2000,” Whitmer said.
Ward, a financial services associate emphasizes interpersonal relationships with students. He also said he plans to heavily campaign with rotary clubs, pro-life groups and religious organizations.
“I’m targeting specific groups,” he said. “We want to start with the grassroots effort and go out from there.”
But Ward faces a tough battle to beat Whitmer, who took nearly 58 percent of the vote against Republican businessman Bill Hollister in 2000.
“I think it’s a race where unfortunately for the Republican nominee, there’s little chance of success,” said Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics. “There are plenty of opportunities around the state for Republicans to increase their majority, but this isn’t one of them.”
Ballenger said to win, Ward will need “a miracle” between now and November.
“He’s climbing a very tall mountain,” Ballenger said. “It’s tough to knock off an incumbent, and Gretchen has financial resources if she needs them.”
Ed Sarpolus, vice president of the Lansing polling firm EPIC/MRA, agreed. He said although the district looks politically balanced on paper, challenging Whitmer will be more difficult than it appears.
“Her fund-raising ability, popularity and strong name identification makes him have to work harder,” Sarpolus said. “It will be difficult for her to lose.”
Nicole Szczepanski, a journalism freshman who met Ward through Miller, wants to build support for Ward on campus by making his name familiar to students.
“A lot of people want to help but just don’t know where to go,” she said. “The important thing is getting people active and involved.”
Ward is hopeful, however, and began campaigning door-to-door and sending mailings after the kickoff meeting.
“We’re trying to put the word out,” he said. “Building that volunteer base is very important.”
I think Ward has a better chance than people give him. Bill Hollister was a liberal and wasn't much different than Whitmer. In fact, he was a RINO. He barely won Meridian, and got killed in East Lansing. We all know what happens when the gop tries to out dem the dem. It's a recipe for disaster. Do you think East Lansing would back a GOP'er anyway? Only if Fieger is the dem. Ward is a solid conservative.
East Lansing will be tough. If Ward can make it up in Meridian and the new area - Williamstown Township(conservative rural area), there could be an upset. This is a off year election as well, and Michigan tilts more GOP during off year elections(has so at least since 1990). Redistricting helps some.
I have never met Whitmer ever. I have never seen her. I can not name one thing she has done for this district except vote against a gun bill. All she has done is yap at Paul DeWeese and saying he's against MSU. I know Paul DeWeese. Whitmer isn't fit to shine DeWeese's shoes, and she isn't fit to shine Larry Ward's shoes either.
As for Ward, this would be an upset win, but it is NOT impossible if the grassroots comes out. Whitmer is NOT that well known around here outside of a couple of very liberal extreme circles. MSU College democrats are weak this year as well. I didn't like Laura Baird at all, but she was always in the papers at least doing something. She had name recognition. Whitmer does not have the same recognition(I believe the Chamber of Commerce hates her guts as well).
Ward has the pro-life, pro-gun vote wrapped up. He also has much business experience as well. He is a former business owner and is currently a financial advisor. I'm confident he won't raise my taxes. He's owned a business in Massachusetts. He's doesn't want to see Taxachusetts come to Michigan.
The student vote is dilluted. By law, students must be registered to vote where their drivers license address is located. Since most students are dems, advantage us. Faculty is my big worry, but they pay taxes too.
Ward's website is here for those interested
The race will be tough, but is not impossible like the Lansing seat. It WILL take a strong grass roots effort to win though since the dollars are against us. If the business community thinks we can win, we can pull this off.
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