This election model says 2020 is 'Trump's to lose'

CNN Politics ^ | October 17, 2019 | Chris Cillizza, Editor-at-large

[2ndDivisionVet]

Donald Trump: Two-term president?

While that prospect may seem distant amid an endless series of terrible headlines -- Syria! Ukraine! Impeachment! -- for the President of late, a trio of new electoral models from Moody's Analytics all predict a victory for the incumbent in 2020.

"Results from each of the three models tell equally compelling stories about what could happen on Election Day, but we hesitate to hang our hat on only one of them," reads the report. "As a result, we average the predictions of the three models. Under the average of the three models, Trump would hold on to key industrial Midwest states and pick up New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota, assuming historical average non-incumbent turnout."

All three of Moody's models -- the "pocketbook model," the "stock market model" and the "unemployment model" -- are, as you might have figured out from their names, based in some medium-to-large part on the state of the economy. And because the economy remains by most measures strong, the Moody models see Trump as a favorite.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Listen to the Moody's rep. on the video.

[Innovative]

We hope so.

But, as I always say, whether we hear good news or bad, the important thing is to make sure and get out the vote.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Volunteer, donate, fundraise and use social media.

[dragnet2]

I’m taking bets Trump KO’s these lying deceptive democrats in short order come 2020.

But I can’t find any takers.

[MCSETots]

I wouldn’t laugh at this. Hillary has at least a 20 point lead. She’d definitely got it in the bag.

[cabbieguy]

The only bag Hillary’s got is her colostomy bag.

[cabbieguy]

But I would like to see her run again, it worked out so well for Stevenson.

[catnipman]

“I’m taking bets Trump KO’s these lying deceptive democrats in short order come 2020. But I can’t find any takers.”

try predictit.org ... plenty of takers there ...

[dragnet2]

How about you?

[Dr. Sivana]

But I would like to see her run again, it worked out so well for Stevenson.

And William Jennings Bryan, who is almost the opposite of Mrs. Clinton in matters of statesmanship, morality and personal decency.

[Huskrrrr]

She’d definitely got it in the bag.

She’s definitely bagged.

[Nothingburger]

Thanks for mentioning Bryan, whose role in the Scopes “Monkey Trial” was grossly misrepresented in “Inherit the Wind.”

[arthurus]

None of these election models and predictions factor in the unprecedented level of cheating that will occur in 2020. All the major cities are Democrat run and can be expected this time to produce sufficient votes to overwhelm any Republican majority of real votes. The big cities always report last and thus know how many votes are needed to “win” their states. This was done in selected cities in the last two elections 2016 & 18, and Florida went Republican due entirely to incompetence in Broward and Palm Beach Counties.

[olepap]

I dislike these projections. Remember all the projections guaranteeing a victory for the embodiment of corruption?

[ThePatriotsFlag]

You need to be adding (Fake News) to EVERY CNN post.

[joma89]

Don’t get cocky, folks. Go out and vote and make sure everyone you know votes.

JoMa

[catnipman]

“How about you?”

i bet in 2016 and cleaned up and already have maximum allowed bets for the two bets relating to trump/gop winning. hope there will be a VP “market” to bet as well after the Dems select their VP candidate ...