Okay, thanks. I see that Duval county in-person early voting ends by November 6th (a Sunday). Also, the polls are open on Sundays, so there are 12 days left of early in-person voting, including today. Assuming your calculation of a 77,527 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS is correct, and that the DEM lead in in-person voting grows proportionally through the 6th (DEMs lead by 30,631 after 2 days x 6 more two day periods = 183,786 projected lead).
Offset the DEMs projected in-person lead of 183,786 by a 77,527 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS, then DEMS would have a 106,259 lead going into election day.
It is going to be tight.
Okay, thanks. I see that Duval county in-person early voting ends by November 6th (a Sunday). Also, the polls are open on Sundays, so there are 12 days left of early in-person voting, including today. Assuming your calculation of a 77,527 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS is correct, and that the DEM lead in in-person voting grows proportionally through the 6th (DEMs lead by 30,631 after 2 days x 6 more two day periods = 183,786 projected lead).
Offset the DEMs projected in-person lead of 183,786 by a 77,527 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS, then DEMS would have a 106,259 lead going into election day.
It is going to be tight.
Also the independent returns are up this year and Trump has the edge there. That will cut into the 102K D even more.
Guess we will have to wait a little longer and see who things Trend.
A new poll by Bloomberg came out this morning showing Trump +2 in Florida.
I think it will be a close election in Florida.
ABCs tracking poll of 12 points is ridiculous. 12 points would be a 50 state landslide.