Posted on 04/01/2016 2:28:10 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Does Senator Ted Cruz have a shot at replacing Barack Obama as leader of the free world in January 2017? I think so.
All candidates love to create the impression that they will win. At a private dinner in Los Angeles Wednesday night, Cruz was no different. He knew just what to say to make the case that he’s on a winning track.
The evening’s ground rules prevent me from sharing specific names and quotes. But I can write about my general impressions and observations after seeing Cruz interact with about 20 Republican players and donors, some of whom had previously supported other candidates.
Cruz’s remarks centered on two challenges—winning the Republican nomination and winning the general election.
He wasn’t cocky about his chances. He spoke in terms of probabilities. He sees a low probability that Trump will have the required number of delegates to win the nomination outright. He threw out enough data on past history, demographics and polling to suggest a much higher probability that we will see a contested convention in Cleveland in July.
That prospect makes his eyes light up, because he’s confident he will win a second round vote and take the nomination. In addition to what he thinks will be his bigger appeal in a two-way contest, Cruz thinks Trump is weak on execution, and he can exploit that weakness. One area is understanding the complex, arcane world of acquiring delegates, with rules that vary by state. Cruz has a well-oiled machine that knows how to play this “three-dimensional chess.”
The Cruz campaign’s skill at execution is a major reason to take his candidacy seriously. This includes the nuts and bolts of campaigning with maximum efficiency. He claims his campaign is twice as efficient—by efficient, he means what percentage of dollars are used on “voter content” rather than overhead—than the previous record of Obama’s 2012 campaign.
Trump’s reckless, coarse and often incoherent style—changing views on the fly and violating basic rules of decency—has also served to soften Cruz’s image and make him look more reasonable.
If winning the Republican nomination will be an arduous process, Cruz sees a smoother path in a general election contest against Hillary Clinton. If anything, the prospect of a national election seems to liberate him. A battle of ideas with a traditional and predictable candidate like Clinton seems more suited to his style than a battle with a loose cannon like Trump.
Cruz is a master debater who has a winning record of arguing cases in front of the Supreme Court. He knows how to frame and reframe issues to gain an advantage.
When confronted on his uncompromising pro-life view, he responds with sensitivity and uses language like “not taking it out on the baby.” He knows that when you speak with people who sharply disagree with you, tone and emphasis matter. I sensed a new, softer side of Cruz developing, one gearing himself to go for the big prize.
He understands that he can’t win a majority of the vote if he’s perceived as an ideological extremist, so he pitches his policies in a way that has universal appeal-- emphasizing words like jobs, freedom and security.
He knows he can't appeal to everybody, but he believes his policies will have enough crossover appeal to attract enough voters to win. He’ll tell African-Americans that his policies will bring them more jobs than Obama’s did. He’ll tell Latinos that a secure border is in their interest. He’ll tell Trump voters that his credentials for security are unmatched.
In short, Cruz is a smart politician who is trying to stay authentic to his values.
If he wins the Republican nomination, expect a candidate who will do everything he can not to come across as divisive. I got a sense that while he really believes his ideas are good for all of America, he also understands why others would see things differently.
Near the end, he surprised the dinner guests by talking about “Cruz Democrats.” He quoted polling data (not clear if it was his own or others) that suggests he’s attracting a lot more Democrats than one would expect based on his hard-core conservative image.
As the cliché goes, he comes across as more personable in person than on television. I suppose this will be his major challenge—conveying a likeable and credible enough personality so people will trust that his ideas and leadership will indeed help America.
Because he’s realistic about how great this challenge is, I wouldn’t count him out.
left, right, center paper?
I would guess right if they’re interviewing Ted.
but stranger things have happened.
any debates left. I haven’t watched the last 3 but with just a few guys on stage it could be interesting.
He endorsed Milt Romney, too. How’d that work out?
trumps too chicken to debate mano mano
plus trumps debate is all platitudes, “It’s gonna be great”
once he gets away from how great everything will be he sticks foot in his mouth
asking impartially, are there any left?
odd to have none when the field is whittled.
I listen to the “The Word of Promise”, the NKJV Bible audio book when I sleep, and tonight when I awoke to got potty, I was listening to the Book of Daniel at the part where Daniel’s associates conspired against him because they don’t like successful people. They sucker King Darius, the Mede, into having to put Daniel in the Lions Den, although this was probably another one of YHWH’s little jokes on the wicked, so we shouldn’t be too hard on King Darius. Anyway, after Daniel spends the night with the kitties, this happens, and I thought it would be instructive of the situation here in the World today.
Daniel 6
24 And the king gave the command, and they brought those men who had accused Daniel, and they cast them into the den of lions—them, their children, and their wives; and the lions overpowered them, and broke all their bones in pieces before they ever came to the bottom of the den.
25 Then King Darius wrote:
To all peoples, nations, and languages that dwell in all the earth:
Peace be multiplied to you.
26 I make a decree that in every dominion of my kingdom men must tremble and fear before the God of Daniel.
For He is the living God,
And steadfast forever;
His kingdom is the one which shall not be destroyed,
And His dominion shall endure to the end.
27 He delivers and rescues,
And He works signs and wonders
In heaven and on earth,
Who has delivered Daniel from the power of the lions.
28 So this Daniel prospered in the reign of Darius and in the reign of Cyrus the Persian.
Nelson, Thomas (2009-02-18). Holy Bible, New King James Version (NKJV) (p. 867). Thomas Nelson. Kindle Edition.
You sure it isn’t Trump is too tired to debate American vs CanadiaCuban?
Love that graphic!
Americans speak English.
(They also capitalize the first word in a sentence. They understand contractions vs. plurals.)
Also, it’s “mano a mano”.
I would say that Trump is listening to his strategists. Why debate if they say he'll win the nomination without debating? Why take an unnecessary risk, regardless of how small he may consider that risk? Personally, I'd rather see a 3-person debate, but I expect Trump to look after his campaign for now, and to look after our country starting in January.
Cruz and Trump agree far more than 80% of the time (see my tagline from Ronald Reagan). They should be friends and allies, and we should treat both of them as such . . . but I’m waiting for everyone, 100%, no exceptions, on the other side to go first, of course.
This is pure Fantasyland. Ted Cruz will never be President. Not in 2016, and not ever.
| ...[Cruz] spoke in terms of probabilities. He sees a low probability that Trump will have the required number of delegates to win the nomination outright... I suspect this donor columnist doesn't really believe what he said because he didn't elaborate on the reasons Cruz gave for believing Trump can't get to the 1,237 delegate count. There's a book called How to Lie with Statistics. If you combine the knowledge in that book with Ted Cruz's superior acting abilities, you can pitch a good storyline. The New York Times hires real statisticians, plus on those rare occasions that NYT publishes something positive about Trump, it's likely to be true. Read their interactive Delegate Counter chart and you'll see Trump's chances are excellent. Currently, all Trump has to do is maintain an average 42% of votes and he'll go over the top in California. |
 |
Because the article was really about Trump.../s
Thank you for that pertinent precedent.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.