Posted on 03/13/2016 9:36:14 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
No different than Trump folks noting comments by people formerly held in low regard here saying good things about Trump.
Pull away the Kasich votes in Ohio!
Iowa was a 4.7 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 3.3 (8 pt drop at the actual vote)
Jan 26-31 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac, Emerson), Feb 1 vote...
SC was a 17.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 9.9 (7.2 pt drop)
Feb 16-19 polls (FOX, SC House, Emerson), Feb 20 vote...
OKL was a 11.4 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 6.1 (17.5 pt drop)
Feb 28 Monmouth and SoonerNews9 poll, Mar 1 vote
VA was a 14.5 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.8 (11.7 pt drop)
Feb 26 CBS poll, Feb 24 Monmouth poll, Mar 1 vote (Roanoke had him up 23 on Feb 24)
TN was a 18.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 14.2 (3.8 pt drop)
Feb 23 poll Mar 1 vote
VT was a 15.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.3 (12.7 pt drop)
Feb 17 VPR poll Mar 1 vote
Alaska was a 4.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 2.9 (7 pt drop)
Alaska Dispatch poll, Mar 1 vote
Texas was a 9.0 point win for Cruz just days before the vote... and Cruz won by 17.1 (8.1 pt drop)
Feb 26-28 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, Fox26), Mar 1 vote...
(Emerson and ARG had Trump within 3 and 1 point respectively on Feb 28)
KS was a 6.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 24.9 (31.0 pt drop)
Mar 3 poll, Mar 5 vote
ID was a 11.2 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 17.3 (28.5 pt drop)
IdahoWeekly Mar 6 poll, Mar 8 vote
MS was a 24 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 17.3 (6.7 pt drop)
Feb 29 poll, Mar 8 vote
An average last-moment drop of 12.9 points in these 11 states. When it comes time to actually vote, Trump's support crumbles by double digits.
Caucus states and primaries, before and after candidates drop out, liberal and conservative states, all with one common theme... Trump isn't pulling as many actual votes as poll votes and impressive rallies... and most polls have him behind Hillary head-to-head (most recently: Trump down 8 to Hillary, 52-44, Cruz up 1, 49-48 - March 1 CNN poll), or up only 1... and if he drops 6-12 pts at voting time, as he seems to be doing in half of the states so far, Trump is in deep trouble.
(I expect the usual Trump folks here to dismiss all of this with a single useless dismissal, of course... my favorite so far has been "you have too much time on your hands", as if that changes a single fact posted.)
Polls may not be accurate (another common Trump supporter dismissal), but the trend is clear... Trump underperforms the polling, and by significant numbers. (Yes, he has beaten a few polls, but only once by more than the margin of error.)
ID, OK, and TX are not caucus states, three of his 7 outright wins (and all among the most conservative states). More false spin. And Caucus states still have hundreds of thousands of voters. They are not small cabals as Trump folks seem to want to pretend. The lower numbers are due to limited hours the polls are running, not limited openness to the public voters. Don't fall for lies.
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