This has been known for some time. The SS Trustees put it in their annual report. Here is the statement from the 2013 report:
"Social Securitys Disability Insurance (DI) program satisfies neither the Trustees long-range test of close actuarial balance nor their short-range test of financial adequacy and faces the most immediate financing shortfall of any of the separate trust funds. DI Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percent of annual cost (the trust fund ratio) declined to 85 percent at the beginning of 2013, and the Trustees project trust fund depletion in 2016, the same year projected in the last Trustees Report. DI cost has exceeded non-interest income since 2005, and the trust fund ratio has declined since peaking in 2003. While legislation is needed to address all of Social Securitys financial imbalances, the need has become most urgent with respect to the programs DI component. Lawmakers need to act soon to avoid reduced payments to DI beneficiaries three years from now.
This has happened before, 11 times to be exact. What Congress must do is shift T-bills from the OASI Trust Fund into the DI Trust Fund to keep it solvent. The problem is that it will move up the time OASI fund will go bankrupt--now 2033. In actuality, SS has been running a deficit since 2010 and each year some non-market T-bills from the $2.4 trillion SSTF must be cashed in by the General Fund to make up the shortfall. Since we borrow money to operate, we are essentially borrowing money to pay SS benefits.
By law, Congress must remedy the DI trust fund by 2016 or benefits will be cut. I suspect both parties would like to do it after 2014 so as not to raise it during the midterms. Too much explaining to do to a dumbed down American public.
Oh well then. If it’s in print, it’s true then, right.
So in 2016 it will be. You will see.