Stopped right there
I see three or four recognizable groups in the GOP: An old money faction (Bush, Rockefeller...), the religious right, libertarians, and populist groups like the TeaParty.
I have been writing for quite a while that there are three factions in the GOP: the conservatives, the libertarians, and the Aristotelians (aka GOPe). For a Republican to win the White House, s/he must coalesce two of these factions; otherwise enough GOP-leaning voters will stay home to give the WH to the Democrats.
Reagan won in 1980 because he coalesced the conservatives and libertarians, and while the GOPe despised him, his sop of having GHWB on the ticket was enough to keep them from actively sabotaging his campaigns. Bush 41 won in 1988 because enough conservatives and libertarians were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and lost in 1992 because he had betrayed them—after-the-fact polls show that even without Perot, Clinton would still have won the election. Dole in 1996 ran with the strong support of only the GOPe, and lost. GWB lost the popular vote in 2000, won the election only because he convinced enough conservatives that he was one of them, and convinced enough GOPe-ers that he could keep the conservatives at bay. McCain could have coalesced the conservatives and the GOPe, if only he had let Palin be Palin, and Romney let the conservatives slip through his fingers by not continuing to take the fight to Obama after the first debate.
It is no accident, I think, that the three standard-bearers as presently constituted are Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Jeb Bush, representing the conservatives, libertarians, and Aristotelian GOPe, respectively. The only candidate who could coalesce the conservatives and libertarians a la Reagan is Sarah Palin, but a Cruz/Paul ticket might have the same effect—it wouldn’t work the other way around, because Paul’s isolationism won’t sit well with enough conservatives. In short, what the GOP needs is a figuratively-smoke-filled back room, where the conservative and libertarian faction leaders coalesce around a Cruz/Paul or a Palin/Cruz ticket, and then meet the GOPe’s choice (probably Jeb, perhaps Christie) on the primary battlefield.
Establishment” and the “insurgents game on time to phase out the good old boy club.
Some good points, but it is off a bit. Michigan has an open primary where dems and independents vote. McCain won 2000 due to Detroiters wanting to embarass John Engler. In 08/12, Romney was the establishment pick ibstead of McCain. It’s social conservative although religion is a private matter here.
While I liked the overall commentary, I object strenuously to the above description. This faction may be a small tribe within the GOP, but it is the most intellectual, realist and pragmatic group. This faction is NOT DC elitist and not necessarily secular. Unlike the GOPe Jebs & Christies, they prefer to be anti-DC outsiders. Unlike the libertarian Paulistas, they do not fear religion or candidates who use faith as a component of their conservatives. Unlike the strict single-issue evangelicals like Huckabee, they favor fighting social issues on a Constitutional basis rather than via divisive legislation.
They were the inspiration behind 1994's Contract with America. They were and remain the leaders within the Tea Party movement. They are Palin & Cruz supporters who admire Dr. Ben Carson. They are the ONLY true 3 stool leg conservatives - economic, social and defense.
“Romney versus Thompson for the very conservative, secular vote.”
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Oh poppycock.
This article is completely full of baloney.
Romney was conservative?
VERY interesting and informative article.
It is the issues for the electorate that must change.