Posted on 04/02/2013 5:40:02 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Sometimes, the best way to get a handle on the unpredictable is to label it with a completely random numerical value. Oddsmaking is a combination of magical thinking, intuition and sheer chance. With that in mind, here are the odds that Vegas bookmakers might want to give to the following world events:
1. North Korea starts a war with South Korea: 10% My biggest fear is that the West believes that North Korea does not actually feel threatened and is simply posturing. But that assumption has almost never, ever held water for any conflicts. It's been a huge blind spot; us assuming that our sense of rationality applies in a world governed by semi-rational statecraft principles. Still, Kim Jong Un is not entirely cosseted by peoples unaware of world norms.
2. Immigration reform passes: 40% chance. There is significant progress in both the Senate and the House, and the rumblings of a revolt from conservatives remains rhetorical at the moment. Still, the spirit of cooperation that now exists might be the high point.
--snip--
5. Odds that Sarah Palin runs for president: 50/50. She won't be able to play the role she wants to play in the national conversation without formally re-affiliating with the Republican Party, and my guess is she tests the waters, at the very least.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
North Korea: odds that Obama catastrophically mishandles this situation? Greater than 99%
Immigration reform passes: odds that Congress catastrophically mishandles this situation? Greater than 99.5%
The budget: odds that Congress and Obama work together to catastrophically mishandle this situation? Greater than 99.9%
Sarah Palin runs for president: odds that the GOP leadership sabotages her even if they think it may cost them the election? I don’t want to think about it, but I’m not as optimistic as I am on North Korea, the budget, or immigration.
When a man says he is going to kill you, believe him!
"If someone tries to kill you, you try and kill 'em right back" - Malcom Reynolds, Firefly
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