[Massimo75]

Sure Romney will outperform a guy like Gingrich by at least 20 points in the north east. But I suspect a guy like Gingrich would lose in Connecticut and New Jersey by a lot more than 20 points, so...

Anyway, no one would be happier than me if Romney would carry those states. I have a political GOP oriented blog here in Italy and I’ll be doing liveblogging the whole night (7 hours tome difference with the US east coast). If Romney would carry those states we could call the election soon enough to allow me for at least a couple of hours of sleep :)

[Dr. Sivana]

Sure Romney will outperform a guy like Gingrich by at least 20 points in the north east.

Saying CT is in play is not quite the same as saying it will be won.

However, CT in the not too distant past, has voted Republican up and down the ticket. In '76, CT went for Ford,, both times for Reagan, and in '88 CT went for Bush the elder even though surrounded by Dem states going for Dukakis.

Anyway, my main gist was that people should not just think about candidates' positions when predicting a state's affinity. Demeanor, background and personality all count. If Santorum had gotten the nomination, I believe he would have gotten a jump start in Ohio, PA, MI, IN, and MN; and Obama would not be able to use a "Bain is bad. Rich people are bad." attack style. He would have also picked a few (not enough) ethnic Catholics in New England, but all despite being to the right of most of the rest of the candidates on some hot-button issues.

Romney's persona plays well in New England, which might help him in NH and maybe one EV in Maine. I don't really think CT is in play. But I don't think it implausible that it could be. I say this as one who was born and raised in CT, and lived most of my life there.