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Nate Silver is one of the JOURNO Listers. And he has been working overtime the past 48 hours to spew out all sorts of stuff that Romney trailing in the national polls by 2-3 points means the race is over.

I realize Nate is hard pill to swallow since he’s generally been right on polls. But at the moment people need to tune him out. He’s like Toyko Rose of late, sending out broadcasts that conservatives don’t need to bother to vote this year since supreme commander Obama will mow us all down.

I’m not going to confidently predict that Romney will win. But he’s not a charismatic candidate that people are flocking to like they did the messiah in 2008, thus he isnt going to be showing tons of polling strength. Nonetheless, come November 6, there are going to be millions and millions of us marching to those voting boths and casting a ballot for him.

The Nate Silver’s of the world don’t quite understand the depth of frustration with Obama out here in fly over country. I think they will in 60 days.

The problem with ALL polling right now, except for Ras, is that they seem to have bought the kool aid that the 2008 sample is "the" sample, and refuse to adjust, despite change in party affiliation, sentiment of "identify with," and 2010 and 2011 turnout for Rs.

Silver could be right. But he could be entirely wrong as were all pollsters in 1994 except Zogby, and all most pollsters in 2004 except Ras. It's the old consensus thing: a consensus doesn't mean you're right. It may mean that you and others are in agreement, but you're wrong.

That said, I don't like the new Romney ads. They are specific and well targeted, but I don't think they hit Obama hard enough. However, I do think the Superpacs will take care of that, and Romney's strategy is to continue the "nice guy but failed leader" approach.

Folks, we have to admit that since Romney BY ALL POLLS is killing it with indies, this part of the strategy is working.

This is why I think Silver is really, really wrong: ALL the internals of almost every poll show a) higher support by GOP than Dems for their candidate; b) a 7-15 point lead for Romney among indies; c) a significant lead for Romney among men; and d) a virtual tie among women. Now, as Chris Rock once said, "Dat ain't right." Something is off here.