Exactly, by my count Obama has at most 201 EVs he can be confident in and Romney has at least 206 EVs he can be confident in.
I certainly do not have NC in the toss up category, but do have Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in the toss up category. Of course the author suggest they may be toss, but wonders why no Romney buy in those states.
My view is that this reported $4.5 million buy is likely a long planned buy with buys in other states coming.
His map, however, shows Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin already in the blue column, accounting for the estimate of electoral votes he’s assigning to Mr. Obama. Take a look.
Sigh. Romnet IS doing buys in WI and MI as per WaPo. This is the FIRST WAVE and Romney is awash in cash. If I read the start, it is to begin by locking down the likely states, THEN spend on true swing state lik n, WI, PA, and MI. Ras has now had Romney up in his swing state poll, which covers the first batch, for 2 weeks in a row, even after the Dem convention.
By your count ignores realities. 1st thing is advertising has been pulled in MI and PA. Like with everything follow the money. WI has had some small superpac buys but nothing from Romney yet.
The democrats bounce out of the convention is huge. Nate Siler (yes I know he is liberal) who nailed 08 and 10 elections has Romney with a 20% chance only as of today. Stories have leaked from the Romney campaign today internal trackings show a high single digit lead for Obama in Ohio which would all but finish Romney.
I have been posting all summer how the Romney campaign should be prosecuted for political malpractice. The democrats have been doing all the messaging. The economy still poor and you can’t move the needle at all? Between taxes, Bain, and women’s issues Romney has been responding ( and not very well) all summer.
We get to the conventions and if it was not obvious before it was certainly obvious in Tampa, WE DO NOT LIKE ROMNEY. There was no enthusiasm for this horrible candidate that was picked by the party elders.
We of course make jokes but the democrats love Obama. There convention was enthusiastic and very well managed with every speaker and issue framed as they wanted. Look I like Christie but his speech was about him not electing Romney.
The convention bounce will end up being 5-7 points. With those numbers we are in 08 territory. I will work for local and state candidates. In my opinion Romney is done. The race was lost in the summer.