Any state where Obama is under 50% consistantly, he is very likley to lose. It means a majority don’t want him, they just haven’t reconciled to Romney yet.
Interesting theory. That of course has no basis in fact. History shows us how off the mark that is. Easy to check. Look at polling in past presidential elections and you will see. Second problem with your theory has Romney rallying people around him. This statement I find funny. Romney has no vision no standards and no platform. He is hiding things and also is Conde ding. It is a shame because your theory has a bit of truth. Obama is flawed and beatable by a good candidate. Instead we gave the public Romney.