Jim Geraghty has a good overview of how Oregon is a tease.
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/299777/oregons-probably-not-play-cycle
Geraghty’s analysis is pretty weak in my view:
1. In his first example the early polls said it was close and it was close. Notice that in that case the incumbent president ended with about what he had in that poll, one point more. That is about what Dick Morris would predict with a closer to the election poll.
2. In his second example, the national polls had it closer, really McCain in the lead around that time and then McCain suspended his campaign and refused to compete when his campaign was on and the race turned later on. Ultimately McCain decide he would rather be Senator than run for president.
3. So we have another poll saying the race is close. More importantly the incumbent is below 50% In fact he is enough below 50% that if the state follows the 2004 track, then Romney will win it.