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Political predictions for a fast-moving 2012
The Korea Herald ^ | December 26, 2011 | Carl P. Leubsdorf

Posted on 12/26/2011 10:27:31 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

The pressure is on. Four years ago, I picked Barack Obama to win 353 electoral votes and, twice, I correctly tabbed George W. Bush as a winner, including a 2000 forecast he’d beat Al Gore by four electoral votes. Here is a preview of the road to Nov. 6:

January: Texas Rep. Ron Paul edges Mitt Romney in Iowa caucuses, and fast-closing Texas Gov. Rick Perry nips Newt Gingrich for third. Romney rebounds to beat Paul in New Hampshire, but Perry edges former Massachusetts governor in South Carolina, driving Gingrich from the race, and also wins Florida. In his State of the Union speech, Obama unveils a new jobs program, which Republican leaders reject.

February: Unemployment rate hits 8.8 percent. Republican leaders urge immediate tax cut. Rebuffing them, Obama vows at Hyde Park, N.Y., to match President Franklin Roosevelt’s “bold, persistent experimentation.” Romney captures Nevada, Maine, Minnesota, Colorado and Michigan, but Perry upsets him in Arizona.

March: Deadlocked Congress finally extends payroll tax reduction for a year after polls show GOP House control in jeopardy. Vladimir Putin loses Russian election, seeks asylum in U.S. On Super Tuesday, Romney, Perry and Paul divide the spoils, further muddling GOP race. But Romney wins decisively in Illinois

April: Perry edges Paul in Texas primary. After Texas Rangers lose 12 straight games, manager Ron Washington is replaced by former President George W. Bush. Obama, speaking in Charlottesville, Va., says he is a Jeffersonian. Sarah Palin endorses Perry. Govs. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Bob McConnell of Virginia and Mitch Daniels of Indiana back Romney, calling for end to GOP battle. He takes New York, Pennsylvania and two New England states, gaining a decisive lead.

May: In Indiana debate, Perry says he would shut down government again to reduce spending, He wins primary there, but Romney captures Oregon. New North Korea president dies suddenly; succeeded by 12-year-old brother. House passes budget resolution eliminating all domestic discretionary spending by 2020, but Senate blocks it. Rangers manager Bush talks Sammy Sosa out of retirement.

June: Romney wins California and New Jersey, clinching GOP nomination. Perry concedes and offers support, but Paul refuses. Despite continuing bad reviews for Chelsea Clinton, NBC promotes her to full correspondent. San Jose Sharks win Stanley Cup, and Miami Heat capture NBA. Obama, at Eisenhower Library in Abilene, Kan., praises Ike’s condemnation of military-industrial complex. Supreme Court upholds individual mandate in Obama health care plan 6-3. Romney vows to replace “runaway justices.”

July: Americans Elect’s Internet convention nominates Paul for president and Palin for vice president, creating a three-way race. Rangers take first place, and Angels name Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg a “strategic adviser.” Obama says all U.S. troops will leave Afghanistan before 2014. Dick Cheney accuses him of undermining democracy.

August: Obama, at California’s Reagan Library, pledges to match former president’s ability to work with both parties. Romney, reaching out to tea party activists, picks South Carolina Sen. James DeMint as his running mate. Congress deadlocks on resolution to adjourn for conventions. Accepting nomination, Romney adopts Gingrich plan challenging Obama to seven three-hour debates. Obama responds with John F. Kennedy’s idea for the nominees to travel and appear together; Romney refuses.

September: After poor GOP convention ratings, NBC replaces Brian Williams with anchor tandem of Chelsea Clinton and Luke Russert. Accepting Democratic nomination, Obama vows to extend health care law. In first debate, Paul, echoing Rep. Michele Bachmann, says he’s opposing Barack Romney, “two peas in a pod.”

October: Obama hails unemployment drop to 8.5 percent. Romney calls it a mirage. DeMint says he’d balance Romney’s “liberalism.” Rangers beat Braves in World Series. Paul wins debates, but Obama leads election polls. Dallas Cowboys lose five of six games; Jerry Jones replaces coach Jason Garrett with former Bush adviser Karl Rove.

November: Obama edges Romney, 48-47 percent, winning 286 electoral votes. Paul gets 5 percent. Republicans hold House, 219-216, but Democrats retain Senate on 50-50 tie. Re-elected Obama urges an end to gridlock, naming Texas GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison as attorney general. Republicans object.

December: Sen. John Kerry named secretary of state; outgoing Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton declines to dismiss a 2016 presidential bid. House Republicans oust Speaker John Boehner, naming Eric Cantor speaker and Dallas Rep. Jeb Hensarling majority leader. Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell says his top priority will be to deny Democrats another term in 2016.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: demint; gingrich; hillary; obama; palin; perry; romney; ronpaul
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I don't know if this is satire, really good scotch or Maui Wowee.
1 posted on 12/26/2011 10:27:37 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Texas Rangers lose 12 straight?! Ron Washington replaced by W?!

Satire.


2 posted on 12/26/2011 10:35:03 PM PST by BuckeyeTexan (Man is not free unless government is limited. ~Ronald Reagan)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I don't know if this is satire, really good scotch or Maui Wowee.

It's two out of the three, for sure.

3 posted on 12/26/2011 10:36:17 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"After Texas Rangers lose 12 straight games, manager Ron Washington is replaced by former President George W. Bush."

It's a joke post. Especially the Perry winning parts.

4 posted on 12/26/2011 10:36:39 PM PST by CainConservative (Merry CHRISTmas and a Happy Newt/Marco 2012!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"NBC replaces Brian Williams with Chelsea Clinton"

I'll give the Korean that one.

5 posted on 12/26/2011 10:39:25 PM PST by CainConservative (Merry CHRISTmas and a Happy Newt/Marco 2012!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Rangers beat Braves in World Series.”

Angels beat Phillies is more like it.


6 posted on 12/26/2011 10:42:58 PM PST by CainConservative (Merry CHRISTmas and a Happy Newt/Marco 2012!!)
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To: BuckeyeTexan

I don’t know about the Rangers, but I can see the Mavs losing all 66 games this year.


7 posted on 12/26/2011 10:45:48 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Those are some pretty specific predictions! No one can accuse this guy of being vague.


8 posted on 12/26/2011 10:51:58 PM PST by COgamer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I bet something happens around june, something of a “black swan” event, something that nobody can predict.
It could be a minor magnetic pole fluctuation, it could be an east coast tsunami, could be a series of hurricanes back to back.


9 posted on 12/26/2011 10:57:01 PM PST by Eye of Unk (Castigo Cay by Matt Bracken, check it out. And his other works.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This is crazy. The Sharks can’t win the Stanley Cup!


10 posted on 12/26/2011 10:57:11 PM PST by nickcarraway
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To: CainConservative

Carl P. Leubsdorf isn’t a typical Korean name.


11 posted on 12/26/2011 10:58:05 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Kim is his real name. Kind of like Smith in America.


12 posted on 12/26/2011 11:03:41 PM PST by zippythepinhead (The Salt Lake Tribune hates Freepers.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This could come true unless a lot of us get really really busy...


13 posted on 12/26/2011 11:10:48 PM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole...)
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To: zippythepinhead

If you throw a rock off of the tower on Namsan Mountain in Seoul, you’re going to hit a Kim or a Lee.


14 posted on 12/26/2011 11:14:32 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It would have been better if he predicted a brokered GOP Convention. Especially if the Marlboro Tobacco Company were to sponsor the back room deal making.


15 posted on 12/26/2011 11:40:00 PM PST by jonrick46 (2012 can't come soon enough.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It`s a mix of the possible, the whimsical and the comically implausible... a fun read.


16 posted on 12/27/2011 2:49:33 AM PST by ScottinVA (I miss America.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

...or a Park.


17 posted on 12/27/2011 2:52:01 AM PST by ScottinVA (I miss America.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

LOL!


18 posted on 12/27/2011 6:42:23 AM PST by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet


19 posted on 12/27/2011 6:50:05 AM PST by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

No offense, but it was pretty easy to predict a Punk victory after the GOP supported TARP, and didn’t defend their own record in attempting to reign in Fannie and Freddie after the mortgage collapse. The GOP nominee will lose ONLY if he doesn’t treat the Communist creep Obama like the Communist creep that he is. Gloves on, and Hussein will win OVER 300 electoral votes, and America will become one more Marxist state. Them’s the facts, as I see them. Bob


20 posted on 12/27/2011 9:32:35 AM PST by alstewartfan ("And your oarsman stands with his knife in hand, and his eyes spell 'Mutiny'" Al Stewart)
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