Posted on 05/01/2011 10:41:11 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Bill Kristol posts that he now believes that Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee and Michelle Bachmann will indeed all declare.
The National Journal simultaneously reports that a Newt Gingrich declaration is imminent.
Haley Barbour is definitely out. Marco Rubio is definitely out.
Mitt Romney is clearly in. Tim Pawlenty is clearly in. Trump incredibly also seems inbound.
Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, and Paul Ryan remain wild cards.
Here’s one way to analyze what happens next. I sort the Republican candidates into three piles:
CANDIDATES WHO COULD WIN THE NOMINATION
Christie
Pawlenty
Ryan
Romney
(Bachmann is too obviously crazy. Daniels will be vetoed by social conservatives. Gingrich won’t be able to get past the Nineteenth Amendment. Huckabee will be vetoed by money conservatives. Palin is too much of an all-purpose personal mess. Trump is a flash in the pan.)
CANDIDATES WHO COULD WIN THE ELECTION
Daniels
Huckabee
Pawlenty
Romney
(To be precise: a list of candidates not so fatally vulnerable that they would throw away an election that a challenger might otherwise possibly win. That excludes Ryan whose plan is anathema to all but hardcore conservatives. That excludes Christie, whose style will horrify Americans outside the Amtrak corridor. Ditto obviously Bachmann, Gingrich and Palin. Huckabee is telegenic enough that I’m going to venture that he can get past his ideological vulnerabilities. Daniels is smart enough that he can get past his image vulnerabilities. Assuming in both cases that the economy remains soft enough that anyone can win at all.)
CANDIDATES WHO COULD ACTUALLY DO THE JOB OF PRESIDENT
Christie
Daniels
Huckabee
Pawlenty
Romney
(Basically: the governors, except Palin.)
There are only two names that appear on all three lists: Pawlenty and Romney. My guess is that the race boils down to a battle between the two of them.
Romney’s disadvantage in such a fight is Romneycare plus a general odor of insincerity.
Pawlenty’s disadvantage? The fact that he’d make an outstanding candidate for premier of a Canadian province.
ping for later
Just Who, exactly, listens to Billy Kristol? Have YOU ever heard him stumble over an intelligent thought?
Dave, you are so transparent, no one would take you seriously. Is letterman your real last name?
“Sexist much, Dave?”
Homo twerps like Frum don’t much cotton to women.
I have two comments. First, I’m slowly becoming a Pawlenty fan. I know he has his problems, i.e. tepid support for some sort of cap and trade a few years ago, but he IS a former governor (read leader) and has made statements in line with the Tea Party on spending. He disarms his critics with his easy going manner. That will be a huge asset running against Obama. That personal asset reminds me of another former republican governor that became president.
Second, I take issue with the article’s statement “that excludes Ryan whose plan is anathema to all but hardcore conservatives.” Not so. Ryan’s plan is NOT a conservative plan. It does not balance the budget for more than a generation. It is a House Republican leadership plan and we’ve all seen how conservative they are (not) these past few months. There are two conservative plans out there. First was Rand Paul’s. Second was by the House Republican Study Committee.
And since I’m still thinking of the big news of the night, let me say, God bless America and God bless our military.
who is talkin this jibberjabber? Oh never mind, it’s David Frum.
Oh please, are we going to go through the RINO phase again?
They sound just like libs. Lie, lie and lie.
There are two people who will remain nameless right now; but they are in.
Oh, he's smart enough. The question is whether he's ever made correct predictions ... about anything.
Kristol and Frum. Whoever they hate the most is the best, whoever they like the most is the worst. I’m worried they’re gonna catch on to their reverse-psychology-type power with the
Conservatives, and start attacking a neocon.
Hide in a corner and suck your...thumb.
Who benefits most from Sanford meltdown? Californian (that's right) Mitt Romney
"Peeking Out From the McCain Wreckage: Mitt Romney"
"Someone's got to say it: IS MITT ROMNEY RESPONSIBLE FOR OBAMA'S VICTORY?"
"Vanity: Team Romney Sabotaged Palin and Continuing to Do So?"
"Romney Supporters Trashing Palin"
"Romney advisors sniping at Palin?"
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