Candidates likely consider trying their hand (in any order)
Palin
Bachmann
Romney
Maybe Rubio
Maybe Huckabee
Maybe Demint
Candidates who have a shot at winning the primary (in order of likelyhood)
1) Romney
2)Palin
3)Bachmann
4)Rubio, Huckabee, Demint, all don't stand a chance
Finally, candidates who could beat Obama (in order of likelyhood)
1)Romney
2)Bachmann
3)Palin
None of this is an endorsement of any above mentioned candidates or their politics, just my predictions. Take it or leave it.
Ron Paul will likely run, and at this point it’s likely that he’d do better than last time. It would be hard to argue that it would be easy for Ron Paul to win head to head. But your list has Rubio more likely than Ron Paul?
But, Arnold could get the votes, Palin could get the votes. Romney is extremely flawed. If he was the nominee, Democrats would mock his mormonism non stop. And that’s the media as well. Non stop magic underwear jokes on SNL. Because all Mormons are Republicans. Democrats wouldn’t want to mock their own constituencies, but Republican constituencies, definitely.
Romney should just run as a Democrat. Republicans would lose a lot of Mormons.