I love Burton, but after 3 decades, it’s time for him to hang up his hat before he gets unceremoniously dumped in the primary. We’ve got to unpack his and Buyer’s districts to make the surrounding districts more competitive, including the Indianapolis seat. It’s disgusting a radical Mohammadan represents it. Tip more Republicans into it, and we could put a Black Republican in that seat. Had Marvin Scott been funded more heavily, we could’ve won it back in ‘94.
That’s the real problem. No viable opposition to the Radical Muslim and ACORN favorite, Andre’ Carson, in IN-07.
And in his district, the vast majority of people have NO IDEA they are represented by a radical Black Panther Muslim, because local media is either too terrified, or too biased, to mention it!
I used to believe that the best move for the GOP would be to split Indianapolis into two districts, each 50% in Marion County and 50% in the suburbs, but the 2008 election results (in which Marion County gave McCain just 35% and GOP margins in the suburbs weren’t as overwhelming as before) made me rethink the strategy. Remember that if you were to split Marion into two districts, one of them should remain 30% black so as not to have issues with the Voting Rights Act, and while one could perhaps draw a 30%-black CD that gave President Bush 55% in 2004 and another Marion-based CD that gave him 60% in 2004, both such districts would have been carried by Obama in 2008 (with the 30%-black one being very difficult for any Republican to hold, and with the other one being very difficult for Burton to hold).
Another thing to consider is that the IN-08 and IN-09 in the southern part of the state will be winnable for Democrats unless we revamp them and add Indy GOP suburbs to each of them, and whichever district has Bloomington will present problems for the GOP. And Pence’s IN-06 can’t swoop down to take in the eastern part of the IN-09 if still has marginal or Dem-leaning Madison and Delaware Counties.
This means that the optimal GOP redistricting plan would combine Bloomington with Indianapolis through a strip of land in eastern Morgan County to create a district that gave President Bush less than 40% in 2005 and gave Obama maybe 25% in 2008. The IN-08 could be given suburban GOP Hendricks County (and stripped of Dem-leaning Vigo), and the IN-09 could be given suburban GOP Johnson County (and stripped of Bloomington and its marginal eastern counties). Burton’s new CD ould have Hamilton and GOP parts of Marion, but would also take in marginal Madison County. Pence’s district could go south without putting it in play. Basically, central and southern IN would have only one CD that the Democrats could win absent a complete GOP collapse.
In northern IN, of course, the GOP should combine northern Lake County (Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, etc.) with northern parts of Porter, LaPorte and St. Joe’s Counties, including South Bend and surrounding Dem areas. Visclosky would have a safer CD than he’s ever had before (although Donnelley might knock him out in the RAT primary), but all of the surrounding CDs would be comfortably Republican.
So that would be my plan: 7 CDs that gave President Bush between 60%-65% in 2004, and two CD’s that gave him between 35%-40% that year. Given IN Democrats’ success in House races and Obama’s performance in 2008, locking in 7 Republicans and 2 Democrats for the entire decade would be a huge coup for the GOP,