Senator Conrad Burns of Montana has not been polling very well of late, and appears to have been hurt seriously by the Jack Abramoff scandal (Burns was perhaps the biggest benefactor of campaign contributions from Abramoff-affiliated groups and Abramoff clients). Senator Burns's seat is up in 2006, and Democrats believe that they will be able to defeat him in November. While I still think that Senator Burns would get reelected, there is no reason why we should have to fight to retain a Senate seat in a state where President Bush got 59% in 2004. Thus, I would prefer that Senator Burns would forego reelection and that Congressman Denny Rehberg, a solid conservative who is very popular among Montana voters, ran for the Senate.
Having the relatively young Rehberg (I think he's 51) run for the Senate would not only ensure that we'll hold the Senate seat in 2006, it would also greatly improve our chances of holding the seat in 2012, the year in which Democrat Brian Schweitzer will be completing his second and final term as governor (assuming that he wins reelection in 2008, which is a contingency against which we should be prepared), and if the Republican incumbent Senator is a 77-year-old Conrad Burns it would give the Democrats a golden opportunity of capturing the seat. However, if Denny Rehberg is the incumbent Senator, I don't think Schweitzer would waste his time running for the Senate that year.
So Congressman Rehberg would be our best choice for the Senate both in the short- and long-term. I hope Senator Burns belatedly keeps the promise he made in 1988 to go home after one term.
I agree that Burns is highly vulnerable, but isn't he known for his personal stubbornness? I suspect that he does not want to bow out, but he might if he is convinced that he cannot win. Republican senators in MT have been a real rarity since statehood.
The article overstates its case when it describes Rehberg as "wildly popular", but you're on the money when you say he's the best candidate available. He would definitely be the favorite against John Morrison (the likely Dem. nominee).
And how's this for a senario: ex-Gov. Marc Racicot runs for the House to succeed Rehberg, then challenges Max Baucus in 2010?
I'm also hopeful that Conrad Burns decides to return to Montana and Denny Rehberg replaces him.