Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The coming collapse of commercial real estate
American Thinker ^ | 06/26/2023 | Andrea Widburg

Posted on 06/26/2023 8:11:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

I’ve telecommuted for over 30 years, which was a choice I made once home computers and the internet enabled me to establish a virtual law office. However, there’s a huge difference between individuals and small offices making lifestyle and economic choices and the lockdown’s brute force transition from an office-place economy to a telecommuting economy. The former is an organic workplace diversification; the latter is the breakdown of the commercial real estate marketplace with unfathomable consequences for the American economy.

The climate changistas have long dreamed of a virtual business environment, one in which people in white-collar professions work from home. For them, the lockdowns were the perfect catalyst. At the macro level, telecommuting ends traffic jams and stops the need for vast building complexes that despoil possibly more attractive natural environments. It theoretically lowers the cost of doing business because companies no longer need to pay mortgages or rents on office facilities, as well as attendant costs (e.g., insurance, janitorial maintenance, etc.).

For white-collar workers, there are upsides, too. Not having to commute to work can save them hours per day, as well as cutting back on the costs of bus fare, fuel, and car wear and tear. Latchkey kids are no longer an issue because one or both parents are home when the kids come home. You also don’t need to spend money on a work wardrobe or expensive lunches downtown.

There are very real downsides, though. For individuals, there’s the absence of workplace camaraderie and structure. Loneliness is a real risk. The office can also be a dynamic place in which ideas bloom. When you’re sitting before your screen with only the dog or cat for company, it’s hard to focus.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: chairman; chairmanxi; collapse; commercial; realestate; realty; telecommuting; xi
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-29 next last
The result of all this is that commercial real estate is empty. Small businesses don’t renew their leases, and large businesses simply forfeit them. Building owners are walking away from mortgages, leaving their empty office towers to the banks, which cannot possibly find tenants for them. The result is that we are looking at a coming commercial real estate collapse that could make 2008’s home real estate recession look like a cheery block party
1 posted on 06/26/2023 8:11:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
SOURCE: THE DAILY MAIL

[EXCERPT]

Commercial real estate has become a debt timebomb, experts have warned, as office towers remain empty in once-bustling cities.

The new era of remote work means ‘zombie’ workspaces remain vacant - while higher interest rates make it more expensive to buy or refinance buildings.

Some $1.5trillion in real estate mortgages are due this year and next, bringing the market to a dangerous precipice. When the deadline arrives, experts warn owners may be forced to default instead of borrowing again to cover the bill.

Earlier this month, the landlords of downtown San Francisco’s Westfield mall stopped making mortgage payments on its $558million loan amid rising crime and tanking sales.

Meanwhile in New York, building owners are being forced to negotiate extensions on millions of dollars of debt after failing to secure financing.

[snip]

According to building security company Kastle Systems, only about half of office workers in the Big Apple are back at their desks.  

And a joint study from researchers at New York University and Columbia University found that offices in the city will lose 44 percent of their pre-pandemic value by 2029 because of the impact of remote work.

Across the country, values for offices have decreased by 27 percent since March 2022, according to data analytics company Green Street.


2 posted on 06/26/2023 8:13:28 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

There is a further cascade of negative ripple effects. Without offices with people, there is little need for any support staff in a building. Less need for ancillary services like coffee shops, lunch/dinner restaurants, street vendors, convenience stores, even little need for bars.

It is the death of cities. I don’t have a dog or pony in the fight, so I really don’t have any reason to care. But for those service industry people who have been shut off, too bad, i guess.


3 posted on 06/26/2023 8:23:34 PM PDT by drSteve78 (Je suis Deplorable. Even more so.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

We’ve had “see-thru’s” for some time now.

I’ve continually noticed the oversupply of commercial real estate.


4 posted on 06/26/2023 8:27:07 PM PDT by sauropod (“If they don’t believe our lies, well, that’s just conspiracy theorist stuff, there.”)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Nightclubs!! Can you imagine the possibilities?


5 posted on 06/26/2023 8:54:16 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: drSteve78
“services like coffee shops, lunch/dinner restaurants, street vendors, convenience stores”

I really believe the plan is to fill up the space with our
“visitors”from the south ... and the rest of the world.

Gov subsidized aliens, gov subsidized rent to the owners ... save the big boys and the banks.

Subsidized payments ... so our friends can spend money downtown ...save the small retail.

The infrastructure is there , ready to go. The citys need a way to get fed $$$ win win for everyone

well maybe not EVERYone .... but you know ...break some eggs and all that....

6 posted on 06/26/2023 9:06:39 PM PDT by 1of10 (be vigilant , be strong, be safe, be 1 of 10 .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The result of all this is that commercial real estate is empty. Small businesses don’t renew their leases, and large businesses simply forfeit them. Building owners are walking away from mortgages, leaving their empty office towers to the banks, which cannot possibly find tenants for them. The result is that we are looking at a coming commercial real estate collapse that could make 2008’s home real estate recession look like a cheery block party

************

Where is all the pay your mortgage, you deadbeat rhetoric that we saw back in 2008-2009?
These people knew what they were signing.

Let me guess the culprit, which has to be the government.

It was the CCRA.....”Commercial Community Reinvestment Act.”(I made this up)

“The God damn minorities did it again.”(sarcasm)


7 posted on 06/26/2023 9:11:02 PM PDT by unclebankster ( Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

They will try to kick the can down the road anyway they can. Even try to rezone these into condos or apartments.


8 posted on 06/26/2023 9:56:52 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Not gonna happen. They will just put illegal aliens and “refugees” in these buildings, at YOUR expense.


9 posted on 06/26/2023 9:59:52 PM PDT by montag813
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: montag813

What will these illiterate border jumpers do to pass the time? There will be no jobs.

With no downtown commerce, the cities will descend into anarchy.

We are on the threshold of the death of major cities in America.


10 posted on 06/26/2023 10:47:30 PM PDT by Gnome1949
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: drSteve78
Considering that cities tend very much towards voting democrat, these are the consequences of the people's voting decisions.

They are only reaping what most of them sowed. So much for democrats being *for the little guy*.

11 posted on 06/27/2023 12:44:18 AM PDT by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon.” Amen. Come, Lord Jesus!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: drSteve78
It is the death of cities. I don’t have a dog or pony in the fight, so I really don’t have any reason to care. But for those service industry people who have been shut off, too bad, i guess.

Considering that cities tend very much towards voting democrat, these are the consequences of the people's voting decisions.

They are only reaping what most of them sowed. So much for democrats being *for the little guy*.

12 posted on 06/27/2023 12:45:08 AM PDT by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon.” Amen. Come, Lord Jesus!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: drSteve78

Cities and mid-sized towns died when manufacturing was offshored. A service economy does not create wealth it offshores it.


13 posted on 06/27/2023 12:48:02 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

In order to actually learn and earn the vast majority of what I know and have, I had to leave home to do it. It was my mom and dad’s home, but the opportunity to learn and earn was what lured me out... So I learned how to design office buildings and earned a living over 40 years doing it.


14 posted on 06/27/2023 5:29:53 AM PDT by Dixie Yooper (Ephesians 6:11)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I’ve humored myself saying “Idiocracy” was a documentary.

Now, looks like Escape from New York is coming true as well.

Why not convert these empty downtown offices into single occupancy, free public housing? Make these cities true liberal Utopia’s where rich guilt ridden white people can make all the tax deductible donations they need to to assuage their guilt. Free housing, food, drugs, booze, 87 genders. Whatevs. Once you “check-in”, you cannot check-out until you prove means of support as there are no hand-outs in Greater America.


15 posted on 06/27/2023 5:43:39 AM PDT by IamConservative (I was nervous like the third chimp in line for the Ark after the rain started.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: AAABEST

Ping.


16 posted on 06/27/2023 6:18:40 AM PDT by Joe Brower ("Might we not live in a nobler dream than this?" -- John Ruskin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe Brower

Thank you Joe.

A lot of paper is coming due - doesn’t look good.

Wonder what’s going to happen to all the unused office space. Retail is bad too.


17 posted on 06/27/2023 6:21:37 AM PDT by AAABEST ( NY/DC/CA media/political/military industrial complex DELENDA EST)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Mark Simone...an excellent NYC talk show host...often mentions figures that he sees regarding people returning to their Manhattan offices after the end of the Wuhan Flu panic. I can't recall the exact figures he gave but it was somewhere around two-thirds.

So that means that around one third of people who commuted to Manhattan from the suburbs before the panic haven't returned.

Absolutely amazing.

I live within 100 yards of a commuter rail station that goes into downtown Boston. Before the panic the station's huge parking lot was full on weekdays. These days it's about half full.

18 posted on 06/27/2023 7:55:48 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Two Words: BANANA REPUBLIC!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Gnome1949
What will these illiterate border jumpers do to pass the time? There will be no jobs.

Crop picking, landscaping, food processing, housekeeping. The top 4 for illegals. ALL of which will be replaced by robots and automation in the next 10 years (crop picking is 80% robots in Europe, where they have no similar market of cheap labor)

19 posted on 06/27/2023 1:13:25 PM PDT by montag813
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Gay State Conservative

Mark Simone...an excellent NYC talk show host...


I listen to his program sometimes.

“Excellent” is quite a stretch.


20 posted on 06/27/2023 1:18:08 PM PDT by nesnah (Infringe - act so as to limit or undermine [something]; encroach on)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-29 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson