[Tell It Right]

I honestly haven't built a math model on investing in individual stocks. I usually watch trends of entire asset classes (think mutual funds, not stocks). I'm currently out of all equities and are somewhat heavy in LT treasuries expecting a bounce.

However, the 4 tech funds I like to invest in are tempting to jump back into because they're down 49% to 67% from their ATH's. I'm hesitant to jump into anything while the S&P 500 is down only 14% from its ATH. In the past few decades, long time bears in the S&P 500 from ATH's (lasting more than a few months) result in the S&P 500 going down 56% (like the 1.5 year bear from 2007-2009) or 49% (like the 2.5 years bear from 2000-2002). The quick bears in 1987 and 2020 lasted only a few months each and the S&P 500 went down "only" 30-ish% before bouncing back. A lot of time other asset classes don't go up much while the S&P 500 has downward trajectory. So I'll stay out assuming that if I miss out on gains, it's not much I'm missing out.

[rbmillerjr]

I hear you in that regard. I got lucky and put my entire 401k into cash in Jan 22, so I did well. Currently 80 percent Bonds of different maturities including 20 percent of that in 30 yrs, so I’m thinking much as you are.

Only about 10 percent equities, and I’m looking to build up to 20 percent, while we struggle through this market.