Posted on 03/25/2023 11:04:20 AM PDT by volunbeer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W6naigF_SU
I am posting this because I know we have some FReepers who have some insight and knowledge of China (beyond mine).
I try to read all viewpoints when it comes to China and this YouTube channel contains many videos you might find interesting. The CCP has created a lot of problems and this video is legitimate (have seen editorials in Asian newspapers about their "social security" crisis).
It is worth watching as are many of the videos on this YouTube channel. The recent education (in China) one was also very interesting and I will link it if you wish to view it.
There is much more "turmoil" in China than many of us here in the US know and consider how hard it is to get negative news out of China. This video explains how the CCP has robbed the Chinese people (much like our govt) when it comes to pensions. They have to collect "benefits" for 17 years to even get back the principle that they paid in while working according to the video.
Is China unraveling? As a layperson who tries to follow events in China it truly seems like they are in worse shape than we are.
Video on "higher education" and the lack of jobs for college graduates. Also talks about the education caste system that has developed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkKje9TTBFY
I have no affiliation with this channel or those who produce it but its interesting.
460,000 companies close down, 800 million people in debt, China’s 2023 economic has no way out
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTAhC-ZLWMw
Perhaps all of this makes war with Taiwan more likely given that the CCP has a debt bubble, the entire nation has a real estate bubble, AND their economy is in turmoil. I think they did even MORE damage to their economy than we did to ours during Covid. Interesting video.
For what its worth - IF the Chinese invaded Taiwan and the “West” cuts off ties along with sanctions I don’t see how China would survive in its current form outside of a thoroughly despotic regime. Their economy is NOT in good shape now and without exports and investment from the West it will quickly collapse in my opinion.
Which path will Xi choose and will their “Politburo” (primarily consisting of oligarchs with major business”) allow him to take such a risk that will lead to their economic ruin?
Thanks for the summary. I can’t stand when someone just post a video link with “you have to see this” or such.
About 25 years ago, they designed and implemented a system very similar to the USA’s social security and medicare system
Thus, it is having the exact same “ponzi-scheme” problems, but worse - its system has not been running as long, while its population is aging faster than the USA’s, and they can’t inflate away their debt as much as the USA can.
>>The recent education (in China) one was also very interesting
Would be interested in that link. Thanks.
That was quite interesting. I especially liked the “lecture” one woman laid on the police sent to harass her for protesting; she ate their lunch via reasned argument they all knew was correct.
The man with the gold always makes the rules, or thinks they should. The CCP has evidently gave workers to believe that they actually have “personal property” (their own wages) in social insurance accounts. Then the CCP decides to raid the notional accounts people considered to contain their own money. Nothing pisses people off like government stealing their cash. Sort of like our own “socal security lock box” that obviously has a big old hole in it.
Xi is a true believer. He’s also as dumb as Biden without the dementia.
The only solution to every problem for a commie is to steal from your people.
I lived over there for 20 years and watched its rise and now its fall. As you point out the demographics from, among other things, the one child policy are a nightmare. They are the oldest country on earth.
China’s future is very grim.
Here is a very brief summary of China’s “5 social security” schemes.
The medical part is something like an American “health care savings account” whereby individuals have the ability to spend on their own specific health care needs.
But it seems local governments have raided the funds, ostensibly to pay for the huge costs of COVID testing and lockdowns.
https://www.hrone.com/blog/guide-chinas-social-security-system-pays/
Zeihan is all over the geopolitical map in this interview, China included.
Peter Zeihan: China, Food Supply Chains, Energy, Ukraine & The Future of Humanity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9zU4cBCf1U
They have tried to copy us in many regards to include things that are ultimately not a good idea when administered by idiots in a bureaucracy.
We have massive bubbles from unfunded liabilities. It is interesting to consider that the CCP has created the same bubbles. Their real estate bubble makes ours look like chump change. They are having millions of foreclosures every month in what the Chinese people in these videos refer to as “concrete boxes” where they sank all their money.
In the US you can simply walk away from a home and declare bankruptcy. In China they foreclose on your home but you still owe the bank tens of thousands of dollars even after you become insolvent.
The CCP is incredibly corrupt but I increasingly believe that the same kinds of idiots who run our treasury and manage our central banks are even more common within the CCP.
I cannot find it now but 6 months ago there were videos of people in China posting that they purchased new apartment residences in brand new buildings for 250k and then the value dropped to 125k and to make matters worse within a year or two the buildings started falling apart from crappy construction and materials. From what I can gather these people lost “half” of their investment IF the local CCP will force the developer to fix the problems BUT in many instances the developer is in bed with the local party so they are not forced to fix the problems.
IF the people walk away or cannot afford the mortgage on the building that is worth 125k then the bank forecloses but they still owe the bank approximately 40-60k in contract fees and obligations.
That is crazy (and highly corrupt). The CCP members really take advantage of the common people there who seem even more ignorant about economics than our population.
Thanks for that link. Very interesting. One thing that stunned me from these videos was the amount of local government debt in China (estimated to be 5.1 trillion). That is crazy and who really “owns” that debt if it was created via bonds?
From what I can find I think our comparable debt is 3.7 trillion (nothing to crow about) but the push for hyper-growth in China can be summarized by this municipal debt. Ours is not sustainable either, but in almost every category their actual debts are far worse than ours.
We have far more in unfunded liabilities (entitlements) but its hard to read what the CCP has done. In the US our “Fed” holds the debt. In China they seem to play a game of gimmicks where other entities besides the central government holds the note for CCP spending.
Zeihan is interesting and I listen to his interviews pretty regularly. I don’t take what he says as gospel but I do appreciate that he does not follow conventional wisdom and he often makes unique points that are worth consideration.
Thank you. Interesting.
According to communist dogma, the health is an entitlement and should be all provided free of charge to everybody!
Also the communists should take care about the old.
Obviously the CCP is not following any communist dogmas.
So what is keeping CCP in charge?
Only force!
——unraveling? -—
I will suggest unraveled.
The reason for the Chinese GDP growth was unregulated growth and investment. The whole economy depended on jobs created by construction and the materials. The local governments didn’t collect anywhere near adequate taxes and depended on revenue from the sale of land. banks loaned money to everybody for the same projects.
People paid cash down and took mortgages on apartments under construction. They put their savings into down payments. When developers ran out of money, the people were left hith a deed on a project that would never be completed.
Banks are failing. Mortgage payments stopped. People can’t with draw their deposits. Wages are not being paid for a year or more. Young people are increasingly lying flat. Unemployment grows and grows and grows.
There is an expression tofu drang that describes shoddy buildings made of tofu. The concept of tofu drang is being understood by nations paying off debt for tofu drang infrastructure built by China. They are not paying the Chinese banks that are actually the CCP in mufti
Concur. We followed the “Greenspan” fairy tale and I think we will have big losses in the future (commercial real estate for sure) but our “bubbles” pale in comparison to what happened in China.
We have codes, regulations, and a true tort system that works. In China, if it’s the right member of the CCP mafia that built your “tofu drang” you have no real means to recover your losses and you still have to pay the CCP bank plus contract penalties.
Great post and I agree 100%. I feel sorry for the Chinese people because the more I learn the more I realize what a corrupt mafia the CCP really is.
I like this guy’s channel. He is South Aftican and used to live there and is very outspoken on China.
https://m.youtube.com/@serpentza/videos
Thanks - bookmarked. I watched the “why is she crying” video. Would suck to be a poor person there!
Yep.
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