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To: DannyTN
What led up to the 2008 crash was that loans were being made to people who had absolutely no way of repaying them. Loans were being shoveled out the door because the banks/lenders could sell them to investment banks who would package them together in mortgage-backed bond issues, back them with various "credit default swaps" (guarantees of a sort) to give them the appearance of some viability, and resell them to institutional buyers who were basically playing musical chairs to get higher yields.

It was like junk bonds for the housing market.

That isn't happening right now and there is no big bubble on the horizon.

46 posted on 11/24/2022 2:50:03 PM PST by RoosterRedux
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To: RoosterRedux

No your analysis of 2008 is off.

The loans that were made were made to people who could afford to repay them. As long as they were able to keep their jobs.
There was an oil price spike in 2007 that dried up disposable income and eventually resulted in people losing their jobs. Which of course resulted in mortgage failures.

Practically every recession looks like a property bubble in hindsight.

This time the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are fighting inflation. To do that they are raising interest rates, that will likely throw the economy into recession. The stock market has been falling for a while. We are already seeing major layoffs in the tech sector.

A liquidity crisis will happen when banks stop lending. If they see a recession coming they will tighten and stop lending.

It will look like a speculative bubble when it’s done. Jeremy Grantham has been saying we are in a super bubble for a while.


69 posted on 11/24/2022 3:03:47 PM PST by DannyTN
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