I suggest a plainer general connection (without getting into the weeds): The data shows an uptrend starting in January 2021. What else happened in Jan. 2021? I suspect the shift to a Democrat administration that would be obviously more friendly to welfare recipients and handing out more "free money" would tempt people to identify as disabled and cajole their doctors to go along with it.
(I should mention that in my interpretation above, I take the July 2020 dip to be statistical flutter. If not the trend started earlier, but arguably this could be from people anticipating the Nov. elections and a subsequent shift in power.)