Posted on 09/10/2021 11:40:56 AM PDT by rickmichaels
Is US$200 a barrel oil likely if policies to reduce climate change take hold?
Yes, says a Middle East oil minister and industry analysts. But not until the mid-century deadline for net-zero emissions.
It would require cancelling short-term investments in the industry, plus a 75 per cent plummet in global oil demand, according to an International Energy Agency (IEA) outline of how to achieve the environmental goal.
“Recommending that we should no longer invest in new oil… I think that’s extremely dangerous,” Mohammed bin Hamad Al-Rumhi, Oman’s energy minister, told a conference on clean energy transitions on Thursday.
“My biggest fear, if we stop investing in the fossil fuel industry abruptly, is there will be energy starvation and the price of energy will just shoot (up),” said Al-Rumhi, in charge of output in the Middle East’s largest producer outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. t “The demand for oil and gas may go down but in the short-term we could see US$100 or US$200 a barrel scenario, which although it sounds very attractive today (to producers), it’s something that I think many of us, if not all of us, would not like to see happening in the market.”
Regional ministers conferred by video to discuss transitions away from fossil fuels in an event organized by the IEA, a 38-country group that collects global energy statistics and promotes collaborations.
The Oman minister’s forecast for US$200 a barrel oil is somewhat echoed in a United States Energy Information Administration long-term projection issued in February. It has benchmark Brent crude hitting US$89 in 2030, then more than doubling to US$185 by 2050. Using 2020 dollars, the amounts would be US$73 and US$95, showing inflation accounts for a lot of the price increases.
Of course a range of factors will play a part on future oil prices, including the production of major suppliers outside of OPEC, such as the U.S. and Russia, and how it further erodes OPEC’s control of the market. Also to consider are the prevalence of renewable energy, the development and demand of today’s emerging markets, and the imposition of policies such as carbon taxes that would drive up oil prices.
The pandemic has depressed global oil demand to about 91 million barrels per day (bpd) from about 100 million bpd, according to the IEA. The agency forecasts demand will increase this year to about 96 million bpd and to more than 99 million bpd in 2022.
A scenario in the IEA’s May report had demand at 24 million bpd in order to achieve net carbon neutral emissions by 2050. That amounts to demand shrinking by 8 per cent a year, it said.
A massive drop-off isn’t realistic, Sultan al-Jaber, minister for industry and advanced technology in the United Arab Emirates, OPEC’s third-largest producer, told the IEA event.
“Even in the most ambitious energy transition scenario, oil and gas will still be needed for many decades to come,” Al-Jaber said.
A long-term oil market forecast issued by OPEC nearly a year ago, its most recent, estimates worldwide oil demand will top out at 109.3 million bpd around 2040 before declining gradually over decades.
Al-Jaber said the Middle East’s oil reserves account for the vast majority of the least carbon-intensive barrels in the world.
That would contrast them with the heavy oilsands of Alberta, which are considered carbon-intensive to produce — in some studies twice as polluting as other oil production — often by burning gas to produce steam that’s injected to soften the oil-laden sands.
A report by scientific journal Nature earlier this week noted that 58 per cent of the world’s oil reserves, 59 per cent of fossil methane gas reserves and 89 per cent for coal reserves should remain in the ground for the world to limit the rise of global temperatures to under 1.5 C degrees.
“For oil, Canada has much higher unextractable estimates than in other regions, at 83 per cent,” Nature reported. This includes 84 per cent of the 49 billion barrels of Canadian oilsands we estimate as proven reserves,” Nature estimated. “By contrast, the FSU (former Soviet Union) region has a relatively low unextractable share of total oil reserves (38 per cent in 2050), reflecting their cost-effectiveness.”
Somebody supported these stupid Democrat sons of bitches.
That’ll put the final nail in Joeks coffin.
Something about the Law of Supply and Demand, if its use is outlawed there will be too much supply....
Just make it $10/gal and be done with it. Grrrrrrr!
Its not if, but when. Non-governmental oil investment is very low. Last year North American active drilling rig counts hit a total number not seen since the 1950s.
Rig counts have doubled from this incredible historical low last year, but now are at the level of the bottom of the last cycle in 2016.
Not sure where oil in the USA will come from if hardly anybody is looking for it.
Oil is the lifeblood of the modern economy.
They are trying to kill us.
“They are trying to kill us.”
They are trying to control you. They do it, most times illegally by creating laws and conditions not based upon facts. It’s been going on for over a hundred years and covers the big needs of the public:
Health, education, economy, employment and child and aged protection are just a couple. And all are introduced as a threat so they can sell that they have to fix it, not you. And they take advantage of it every time. That creates pork for things you have no idea about that isn’t for you...it’s for them hidden in bills using your money.
wy69
like they could actually sell gas at the price that would demand...
they can’t make any money on products nobody can afford, even government use wouldn’t be enough to keep them in business
the minimum wage would have to be over $100hr
feh...
All according to plan...
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