Posted on 12/08/2020 11:20:23 AM PST by Capt. Tom
-- With numerous cruise lines suspending their 2021 seasons into spring – and in some cases, beyond -- is it possible that the companies are simply waiting to restart operations until a COVID-19 vaccine is widely available? It's a plausible theory, although no cruise line executive has said that publicly. As of early December, numerous lines have cancelled voyages into March and April, while some have postponed sailings into June and even the fall for select vessels.
While the lines have cited the restart regulations put forward by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as the reason for the early 2021 cancellations, it's no secret that the current restart conditions put forth by the U.S. government agency are lengthy, with hurdles that will take months to implement.
If approved vaccines do begin this month in several countries, as is currently projected, it might be easier for the lines to wait.
The Clues are in the Cancellations One potential clue toward this line of thinking could lie in the fact that numerous cruise lines have all picked similar restart dates: March 1 and April 1. The CDC states that vaccines for COVID-19 should begin rolling out to U.S. citizens by December, while the majority of adults wishing to get vaccinated should be able to do so later in 2021.
Waiting until at least some important segments of the populace are vaccinated could also allow for a change in the current climate surrounding travel.
Currently, new COVID-19 cases in the United States are the highest in the world, with over 100,000 new cases being reported each day and almost 1,000 new deaths per day. The U.S. has the most active COVID-19 cases in the world, with over five million infections, and the highest number of deaths, at over 273,000.
The CDC has actively discouraged people from traveling and placed the highest warning level possible on cruising, even though no ships are currently sailing. While travel still took place over the Thanksgiving holiday, it was not seen as the responsible choice for Americans -- and similar messages are being broadcast for the December holiday season.
Distribution of a vaccine could start to mitigate those numbers. If the daily infection rate lowers and cases throughout the United States become more stable, acceptance of travelling and cruising could improve, giving lines the social license they need to successfully restart.
Whether it makes sense for cruise lines to hold off all revenue operations until a vaccine can be distributed is a twofold question. First, it would behoove cruise operators to start on the right foot. No operator wants to become the poster child for COVID-19 infection, particularly given the negative coverage towards the cruise industry at the start of the global pandemic. Secondly, waiting for a vaccine -- or even requiring potential passengers to be vaccinated before cruising -- takes much of the risk out of this activity, particularly for those who are immunocompromised or who are front-line workers.
But waiting for COVID-19 to be fully eradicated before cruising resumes isn't all that likely. Cruise lines are burning through cash and acquiring massive debt loads in order to stay afloat in what is more or less a zero-revenue environment. Chances are good that lines will restart while the pandemic is still active throughout the globe, though hopefully brought under control with vaccinations.
Cruising had successes in Europe over the summer, when transmission rates were lowered and new health and safety protocols were put into place. Likewise, cruising has resumed in Asia, specifically Taiwan and Singapore, after those countries cut their virus cases. Even within the U.S., two Maine schooners were able to have a shortened summer season, thanks to testing requirements and the fact that the ships drew passengers who were already fairly cautious about their behavior before boarding and while onboard.
But the precautions aren't foolproof when ships draw passengers from a populace with high caseloads. Just look what happened on SeaDream Yacht Club in November, when a positive COVID-19 case slipped through the line's rigorous double-testing requirement, due to an American passenger.
Even if vaccines lower the transmission rate, expect the now common-sense daily protocols such as masking, testing and social distancing, to remain part of cruising in 2021, at least when the industry initially begins.
In its "Framework for Conditional Sailing" released October 30, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) makes no mention of either a vaccine requirement for cruise lines, nor does it specify what would happen to its complex list of requirements cruise lines must abide by should a vaccine for COVID-19 become readily available.
A number of vaccines are currently in-development around the world, and high-risk residents of the United States could start receiving these as early as this month. While the Framework for Conditional Sailing remains in effect until November 1, 2021, documentation issued by the CDC notes that it will be in effect until the expiration of the pandemic; the CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order "based on specific public health or other considerations"; or November 1, 2021.
As part of its rationale for its restrictive orders affecting the cruise industry within the United States since March, the CDC notes that, "The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread rapidly around the world with no U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized vaccine."
The FDA will hold emergency meetings on December 10 and December 17 to discuss the authorization of vaccines for COVID-19 developed by Moderna, Inc. and Pfizer. Approval by the FDA of an authorized vaccine could, in turn, significantly alter the CDC's findings against cruise operations within the United States.
Though neither the CDC nor cruise lines have confirmed this, it is possible that the prevalence of a readily-available vaccine could aid in the resumption of cruise, making the prospects of an early-spring restart look more promising.
"While we can't pre-judge the outcome, people are pretty optimistic," said Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain, speaking on the FDA's upcoming meetings, in a video address to travel partners. "The announcement about the efficacy of the new vaccines, and the imminence of their likely approval…it's truly historic," he said. "The enormous effort of so many people has accomplished the unimaginable." Fain also indicated that these developments, coupled with health and safety guidelines, could be encouraging for return-to-cruise in the near term. "It also seems that with the newest advances, the ramp-up (to sailing) may be faster than many had feared."
Vaccines are on the mind of Cruise Critic readers, many of whom are coming to similar conclusions that cruising will not return in a significant way until vaccines begin and take hold.
In its ongoing cruiser sentiment survey, Cruise Critic asked members about vaccines and cruising. Of the 17 percent of respondents who said they were unsure if they would book a future cruise (647 respondents in total), 77 percent said that a COVID-19 vaccine would help drive their decision.
Other factors, including the lifting of warnings and travel restrictions, and the decrease in active cases of COVID-19, ranked nearly as high, coming in at 69 percent and 63 percent, respectively.
On Cruise Critic's message boards, members were generally positive about the prospects of a COVID-19 vaccination and their future cruise plans: "We intend to have the vaccine as soon as we are able to - we are both over 65 and keen to get back to some kind of normality in our daily life," writes SeaJane. "We have a cruise booked for October 2021, but shall want to see what future cruises look like before we commit to making final payment."
Some posters wonder whether proof-of-vaccination will become a part of routine travel on airlines or cruise ships.
"In reply to post regarding whether P&O will want all passengers vaccinated, I think they will require proof of vaccination otherwise no point if some passengers are not protected and could take the virus onboard," writes hollyjess.
Other posters note that an effective COVID-19 vaccine program is just one component that will allow cruising to restart, while other hurdles and technical challenges could remain for some time. "Distribution of an efficient vaccine to a majority of our population is just one part of cruise resumption," writes evandbob. "The CDC issued a list of tests that the cruise lines must perform before allowing the restrictions to cease. Remember that the lines will attempt short trial cruises to demonstrate their COVID mitigation and prevention proficiency."
Some posters note firmly that they will refrain from cruising until a vaccine for COVID-19 is readily available. "We would not consider a cruise unless a safe, effective vaccine was available for at least a few months," writes iancal. "There are lots of other travel options for us to consider in the interim, once travel opens up."
The next few months will have plenty of vaccine pro and con news that will affect potential cruise line passengers, and the future of the cruise lines. - Tom
Big question: will proof of receiving the antibody cocktail within the past 4 weeks satisfy these requirements? It should be but I bet that is going to be too complex to implement.
It actually should be as good or better than a vaccination in terms of risk of virus spread.
Cruise ships aren’t coming back.
Curious...would you recommend shorting Carnival, Norwegian, and Royal Caribbean stocks? They’re up strongly this month. If you’re correct it could be an epic investment score.
Never understood the allure of getting on one of those floating incubators.
Like living in a crowded high rise, full of every disease known to man.
Guess I’m just a country boy.
For sure there will be complications now that the health officials and politicians in each country are getting involved and are getting to call the shots.
Just recently a cruise ship was going to leave Italy for the Caribbean, spending about two weeks at sea, and then staying on a private Island in the Caribbean, for about a week, and then reburning to Italy.
That cruise was cancelled by the Italian Govt.
The new Mardi Gras has cancelled its cruise and moved it back a month.
Lots of problems for cruise lines to overcome.
In hind sight it probably would have been better for some of the cruise lines to reorganize 6 mos to a year ago, save the billions they have spent to stay relevant, and come back with a smaller number of cruise ships.
But who could imagine this flu virus would shut them down and us for a year?-Tom
“Cruise ships aren’t coming back”.
That’s right. And for many reasons.
Or if a Thalidomide style outbreak happens, and people are panicked over that.
SAD SAD situation this is. Only hope for a quicker recovery is if vaccine is effective.
Its not just the cruise lines that are going to call the shots - the ports-of-call will also heavily influence the requirement. I bet New Zealand will demand all cruiseline passengers show proof of vaccination before being allowed to disembark there.
Unless you are micro chipped which will stop fraudsters from duplicating
documentation. Plus the cruise ship will know where you’re at if you’re late returning to the ship.
Hundreds of old people on a confined disease incubator with limited medical assistance. What could go wrong??
The vaccines will present new problems since many people won't get it under any circumstances.
A simple question like if a person who is vaccinated and immune, can they still spread the virus to the unvaccinated?
Thee are opposing medical answers to that elementary question-with each side calling the other Quacks.
Another sign of the ongoing Cruise Line problem is when recently the Carnival Cruise Line President, and CEO Christine Duffy advises that the crews get temporary or part-time work while waiting on the resumption of cruise operations. -Tom
They are all just waiting to see if recipients of vaccine will remain safe. I am betting most will jump on it once it is proven to be safe.
A simple question like if a person who is vaccinated and immune, can they still spread the virus to the unvaccinated?
Short answer is it is possible. No one knows for sure. My own opinion is a healthy patient without any symptoms does not excrete a bomb load of virus cells because she is not coughing and sneezing and does not have lungs gull of virus cells to exude while talking. JMHO.
CEO Christine Duffy advises that the crews get temporary or part-time work while waiting on the resumption of cruise operations.
You will not believe how many retail workers and hospitality workers in places like Thailand & Philippines have lost their jobs. Tourist business is dead there. They do not have programs like food stamps or unemployment checks there. People are literally starving for food.
That’s right. They’re like giant Petri dishes.
It won’t happen because people won’t be able to afford to go on cruises and/or they will be carefully watching their money.
I’ve read that many health care workers have said they will not get the vaccines.
We have the time to wait it out and pick a vaccine, but I don't think the cruise Lines can.
They will be over a year wih no income and BILLIONS in expenses. -Tom
Capt. Tom wrote: “But who could imagine this flu virus would shut them down and us for a year?”
Politicians shut us down, not the virus.
Yes and they continue to do it all over the world-here is the latest, click on today's link below. -Tom
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24015-potential-covid-19-case-on-royal-caribbean-s-quantum-of-the-seas.html
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