The polling data, some of it obviously very overblown showing Trump with 46% approval among Blacks but much of it quite credible, confirms that the Democrats are losing their death grip on African-Americans. Obama's very weak showing in Philadelphia and in Miami support this view. Even conventional polling sources are showing indications of this.
I expect a clear victory in Michigan much of it because the African-American vote does more than abandons the Democrats but flips to Trump. If so, one can expect the pattern to repeat around the country.
The implications for this in the presidential race are clear but more interesting in a way are the implications for Senate and especially congressional races.
Are we looking at a big enough trend actually flip the House?
There are 31 Congressional districts that have a dem in them that President Trump won in 2016. We need 17 to flip the House. I think we will get a lot more than that. President Trumps coattails will be long and wide. In a polarized environment, there isn’t going to be much ticket splitting.