“I am betting on the polls being correct this year”
Based on what?
Thanks for the question.
The assessment is based on the following factors:
1) Pollsters have incorporated learning from 2016, including the "weighting by education" factor which missed a big source of Trump support.
2) A tacit concession by the Trump campaign on the accuracy of today's polls, namely the large outlay of ad spending in states like Georgia, Iowa, and Texas, all of which are polling close.
3) Even if individual poll numbers can be discounted, the trends are unmistakable. As students of statistics know, ensemble trend errors tend to be much less than absolute errors of any one poll. The trends are all against Trump, on national and state polls.
4) Republicans in key Senate seats are on the defensive, as mirrored in the polls. They are all reacting to declining polls and all their actions are consistent with poll numbers showing increase in anti-GOP sentiment.
5) Betting markets have moved sharply in Biden's favor.
The totality of the evidence is pointing strongly in the direction of a Trump-led GOP rout if the election were held today.