[SierraWasp]

Modeling for predictions is a really shaky proposition! Even worse than polls or even studies. Man models and God laughs!!!

[ProtectOurFreedom]

“Scientists...conjure...model.”

Okie-doke. Oh, Auntie Em, I DO believe!

[a little elbow grease]

model predicts virus will continue its steady decline with NO second wave

________________

I guess we will see.

By the way, what's all that I've been hearing about what's going on now in China???

[Pollster1]

Scientific model predicts virus will continue its steady decline with NO second wave

I'm a professional, and I would never make such a prediction from a model. Anyone willing to put out such nonsense is playing politics, not applying math. We do not have enough data to say that there will be a second wave, and we do not have enough data to say there won't. We cannot make an informed prediction in any direction. All an honest statistician can do is learn from our mistakes in this first round - and especially learn not to try another nationwide or even statewide shutdown.

[Sacajaweau]

Fauci is pondering his next move to scare the bageebees out of everyone.

Sounding more and more like the "climate scientists" every day.

[Sacajaweau]

https://www.livescience.com/64535-climate-change-health-deaths.html

[norwaypinesavage]

It doesn't take a model to understand how pandemics have always ended. R₀ (R naught), is defined as the mean number of new people that become infected by each victim of the disease. If, on average, the number of new infections is less than 1, the number of victims of the disease will gradually go to zero. The smaller R₀, the quicker the decline. When no new victims become infected, the virus is no longer present in the human population, and is eradicated. This can happen quickly if the virus doesn't mutate, and there are some indications the Wuhan virus is somewhat stable.

The US already has an R₀ below 1 all but 5 states according to this analysis: Click Here. This means that the pandemic will end in the US. We just don't know exactly when. Models cannot accurately determine that, but some may make good guesses.

[_longranger81]

The words “Scientific model predicts...” are now followed in my head by the sound of a phonograph needle being forcibly dragged across a record, then by the lilting swoosh of the old Flushometer.

We have to adjust to the reality that just because words come out of the mouth of a “Scientist”, it don’t mean they were wrote by the Very Finger of God His/HuhSeff.

[ealgeone]

Just like election predictors and climate change predictors at some point they have to honestly analyze and report the data to maintain a degree of credibility.

[Blue Collar Christian]

The “models” and “experts” during my lifetime have mostly been wrong about just about everything always consistently.