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To: Yosemitest
Some very strange details about their scenario. Caps is the name of the virus in this training scenario. For some reason this keeps wrapping around. 1 Key features of the model include two compartments for individuals infectious in the community: half develop mild illness (𝐼 ) and half develop severe illness (𝐼 ). Patients with severe infection either die (𝐷) or recover (𝑅) at rate 𝛼. Those with a mild infection move to the recovered compartment at rate 𝛿.————————- 2. The case fatality risk (CFR) of hospitalized patients was chosen from a normal distribution with a mean of 14%, reflecting expected variation in the ability of healthcare systems to provide high quality care when faced with large numbers of critically ill patients.———————- 3. The case counts reported in the exercise represent infections the severe compartment exclusively, under the assumption that mild illnesses in the community are less likely to be captured by surveillance systems.—————- 4. The payout is based on the number of deaths and the geographic spread of the disease. —————- 5. extranavir is a FICTIONAL antiviral drug. Extranavir is currently used to treat HIV but has been shown to be an effective treatment for CAPS. (Caps is the name of the corona virus disease in this scenario) https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/event201-resources/mcm-fact-sheet-191009.pdf ———————— 6 Social media platforms have attempted to change their algorithms to limit the spread of false information and promote correct information, but the problem of misinformation continues.7,8 Many misinformation response actions have been developed to be used against political misinformation and disinformation but may be applied in response to an epidemic. More than 50 countries globally have taken different government-led actions that, in theory, aim to combat misinformation.9 These actions can range from media literacy campaigns and fact-checking websites to more extreme measures, such as jailing users for publishing content deemed to be misinformation. In some cases, authorities have shut down social media sites or the internet entirely.—————- 7. • The incubation period ranges from 5 to 7 days.—————— 8. Coronavirus Acute Pulmonary Syndrome (CAPS) is an acute respiratory infection that can progress to pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome. It is caused by a swine-origin coronavirus (CAPS virus). The CAPS virus is from the same family of viruses as SARS and MERS but is antigenically distinct. The virus has existed in the fruit bat population for many years and has been transmitted to domestic pigs. The virus causes mild disease in pigS. ——————— 9. The CAPS virus is more transmissible in mild cases than SARS-CoV, and spread by mildly symptomatic individuals is possible. Transmission is via the respiratory route, mostly by respiratory droplets, with some proportion being airborne during aerosol-generating medical procedures.———————- 10. There is no antiviral drug with an indication for coronavirus treatment, although there are several drugs, including anti-HIV drugs, that might be effective. In this scenario, there is one FICTIONAL HIV antiviral—extranavir—that may be effective for treatment or prophylaxis of CAPS.
25 posted on 04/29/2020 9:07:41 AM PDT by HollyB
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To: HollyB

Like right out of their playbook

There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year. There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.

Since the whole human population is susceptible, during the initial months of the pandemic, the cumulative number of cases increases exponentially, doubling every week. And as the cases and deaths accumulate, the economic and societal consequences become increasingly severe.


26 posted on 04/29/2020 9:25:49 AM PDT by HollyB
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To: HollyB
I can't prove it, but this whole thing reeks of a 'planned attack' on the whole world's population.

28 posted on 05/01/2020 5:24:08 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's SIMPLE ! ... Fight, ... or Die !)
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