Posted on 04/12/2020 1:39:43 PM PDT by Conserv
One of the fundamental precepts of politics is that candidates matter. Even in these partisan times, candidates who boast a compelling life story, are blessed with natural charisma, and are able to raise big money from donors will have a leg up on the competition. Talented candidates can win enough crossover support to win races in tough political territory, while weak candidates often fail to take advantage of the strong hands they’re dealt.
House Republicans this cycle have been struggling to recruit top candidates in many friendly districts that Donald Trump carried in 2016. But the tables are turned in an upcoming special election in California that sets the stage for the fall campaign. The swing-district race, to fill the vacancy created by scandal-plagued Democratic Rep. Katie Hill’s resignation, is looking surprisingly favorable for Republicans. The May 12 mail-in election, one of the few taking place in this pandemic-plagued spring, has the potential to give Republicans a morale boost heading into the fall.
The race pits Iraq war veteran and Navy fighter pilot Mike Garcia, a Republican, against Democratic state Assemblywoman Christy Smith. Democratic leaders rallied around Smith, a longtime lawmaker, while Republicans spent the beginning of the year divided over their two top candidates. Former Rep. Steve Knight, who lost the seat to Hill in 2018, aimed for a political comeback and was seen as the early favorite by GOP leaders in Washington. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy even endorsed his former colleague, but local Republicans made the savvier choice in choosing an outsider like Garcia as their standard-bearer in the March 3 top-two primary.
Garcia’s life story is tailor-made for a high-profile congressional election like this one. Running in the 25th District, where more than one-third of residents are Hispanic, Garcia frequently talks about his story as the son of a Mexican immigrant as an example of living the American dream. He graduated near the top of his class at the Naval Academy, flew 30 combat missions in Iraq as a Super Hornet Strike Fighter pilot, and later served as a top executive at leading defense contractor Raytheon. He calls himself a “Mike Garcia Republican,” attempting to sidestep national politics in a district that gave Trump only 43 percent of the vote.
Smith was the consensus Democratic Party favorite, having begun her political career as a school board president before winning a GOP-held state Assembly seat in the last election. By any measure, she’s a capable candidate. But in an environment where voters tend to be skeptical of political insiders (especially in Democratic-dominated Sacramento), she’ll have to explain some of her votes in the legislature. Republicans have already homed in on her support for controversial legislation requiring California businesses to classify “gig economy” workers as employees entitled to full benefits. The legislation was designed to help employees, but it’s sparked blowback from many workers—from independent artists to freelance journalists—as a job killer.
Democrats also face fierce headwinds from Katie Hill’s all-too-public scandal over an affair with a campaign staffer (and an alleged relationship with a congressional staffer, which she denies). Hill has emerged as a hero in some liberal corners for her crusade against “revenge porn”—she accused her ex-husband of orchestrating the scandal by leaking nude photos of her—but she left office with dismal favorability ratings back home, according to GOP and Democratic operatives tracking the race. Hill endorsed Smith early in the campaign and continued to maintain a high profile in the national media (at least pre-pandemic). Her decision to stay in the spotlight has been damaging to Smith.
The March primary results underscore how competitive this special election is likely to be. Though Hill won the seat by 8 points over Knight in 2018, the Democratic candidates on the ballot this year totaled just 51 percent of the vote in the all-party jungle primary. Given that Democratic turnout was juiced as a result of the presidential primary, the numbers suggest that Garcia is capable of pulling off the upset when it’s the only race on the ballot. “We’re modeling the turnout to be very low and leaning Republican,” said one Democratic operative involved in the race.
Internal polling from both sides underscores that this is a highly competitive race. Multiple GOP polls conducted in recent weeks all show Garcia ahead. One mid-March internal GOP poll, reported by The Cook Political Report, shows Garcia leading Smith by 4 points (43-39 percent). Democrats acknowledge the race is close and have recognized the possibility of a GOP upset for a while. But they’re confident that in a normal November election, with higher turnout, Smith will be favored to win regardless of the special-election results.
Both sides are investing significant resources into the race. The party committees have spent or reserved about $1 million worth of airtime on television to boost their candidates. (The National Republican Congressional Committee is spending some of its money on costly Los Angeles broadcast TV; the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending exclusively on cable.) Smith and Garcia have each raised healthy sums of campaign cash for the race and are plowing it into ads designed to introduce themselves to the district.
As one of the only campaigns taking place during the crisis, the special election has become a proving ground for both parties’ messaging during the pandemic. The race will likely turn on which campaign comes up with a more compelling message during these uncertain times.
The DCCC is up with an ad slamming Garcia for allegedly wanting to let "insurance companies deny coverage for pre-existing conditions and hike up costs for life-saving drugs." The NRCC’s ad doesn’t address health care, but it attacks Smith over a school board vote that led to teacher layoffs. “Imagine her recklessness in these frightening times,” the ad concludes. Garcia has also criticized Smith for not holding a scheduled committee hearing in the legislature as the coronavirus crisis was beginning.
While the uniqueness of this special election means it won’t be particularly predictive for the GOP’s prospects in November, an upset in a district Hillary Clinton carried will show Republicans are still in fighting shape. But it will also remind them that if they had more candidates with résumés like Mike Garcia's, they’d be in a much better position.
Then a do over in November.
Not if they ballot harvest like they did last election. Traditionally Republican districts all went the other way because of it.
Eliminate Voter Fraud and Ballot Harvesting/Tampering and I will guarantee you that there will be more than a few “flips” from Communist to Republican.
And the Dems are sure to do that and more. I don’t think CA has had above board elections in decades and are not likely to in the near future.
Not a chance in California. Ballot harvesting is now the law of the land for the democrats in Cali.
California = Government sanctioned Vote Fraud.
A subset of ballot harvesting is “granny harvesting.” The vote fraud ‘RATS go into nursing homes, retirement communities, & assisted living facilities and snap up the ballots of largely elderly & impaired low voter turnout disabled persons. Of course, they fill in the names of their favorite Communist candidates.
This used to be a solid republican district, so I hope Garcia can take it back.
House Republicans have failed to follow Trump’s lead.
They lost in 2018 because of it.
They’ll ballot harvest us into oblivion again.
Savvier like maverick?
"He calls himself a “Mike Garcia Republican,” attempting to sidestep national politics in a district that gave Trump only 43 percent of the vote."
Sounds like a RINO to me.
I agree. The question is: How can democrat cheating be stopped? There are zero consequences for it.
Hence why PelosiIdiot is pushing to have such go nationwide, gg.
Conservatives in CA ought to make a serious run at every district that does not touch the ocean. Put in serious genuine conservative candidates and get out there to mingle and message with the voters. We have conceded far too much.
You watch. Bookmark this post. The next initiative you see on the ballot will be to eliminate the requirement for an address to vote ... so they can combine both the harvesting scam and securing the homeless/vagrant/bum vote.
Col. Buzz Patterson is running in CA District 7 against the Obama-loving Ami Bera.
Buzz Patterson (Republican Party) is running for election to the U.S. House to represent California’s 7th Congressional District. He is on the ballot in the general election on November 3, 2020
https://noqreport.com/2019/07/02/lt-col-buzz-patterson-announces-congressional-run/
Lt. Col. Buzz Patterson, a retired U.S. Air Force combat pilot and White House military aid who carried the nuclear ‘football’ for the Clinton administration, announced his candidacy for Congress in California’s 7th District. Republican Buzz Patterson pledges to fight against liberal policies that are ruining California and making our cities unlivable and will always put America first by returning to more Conservative values.
Not if ballot harvesting has anything to do with it
Never happen. Too much ballot harvesting
Too much VOTE FRAUD to have that happen. Democrats are EVIL!
It’s a republican leaning district.
With a little ballot harvesting of our own, I think a win is a given.
California is a state of many questionables. Their balloting process reeks of impropriety. Mr. Garcia has an uphill climb.
The Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act, which took effect January 1, 2011, requires that all candidates for a voter-nominated office be listed on the same ballot. Previously known as partisan offices, voter-nominated offices are state legislative offices, U.S. congressional offices, and state constitutional offices. Only the two candidates receiving the most votes—regardless of party preference—move on to the general election regardless of vote totals. So a party candidate can be eliminated by the other party and two of the same party will compete in the general election.
And with their history of using illegals, people second voting from other states, dead people balloting, and busing people from the Porterville State Hospital, they can produce any numbers they wish.
rwood
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