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St Louis Fed Estimating 47 Million People Laid Off By End Of Second Quarter
St Louis Fed ^ | 03/24/20 | Miguel Faria-e-Castro,

Posted on 04/11/2020 6:32:19 AM PDT by Enlightened1

Calculating Second-Quarter Unemployment Rate

These two numbers were obtained by applying different methodologies and classifications to two different datasets. This means that while there may be significant overlap, each measure will also be capturing some aspects that the other ignores.

For this reason, we simply took the average of those two numbers as a point estimate for the total number of workers who will be laid off during the second quarter. This resulted in 47.05 million people being laid off during this period.

Summing to the initial number of unemployed in February, this resulted in a total number of unemployed persons of 52.81 million. Given the assumption of a constant labor force, this resulted in an unemployment rate of 32.1%.

  1. Civilian labor force in February 2020 = 164.5 million (BLS via FRED)
  2. Unemployment rate in February 2020 = 3.5% (BLS via FRED)
  3. Unemployed persons in February 2020 = 5.76 million (#1 * #2)
  4. Workers in occupations with high risk of layoff = 66.8 million (Gascon blog post)
  5. Workers in high contact-intensive occupations = 27.3 million (Famiglietti/Leibovici/Santacreu blog post)
  6. Estimated layoffs in second quarter 2020 = 47.05 million (Average of #4 and #5)
  7. Unemployed persons in second quarter 2020 = 52.81 million (#3 + #6)
  8. Unemployment rate in second quarter 2020 = 32.1% (#7 / #1)

 

 


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat; Miscellaneous; Society
KEYWORDS: estimate; fearmongering; fed; fud; stlouis; swag; unemployment
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This would be by June 30, 2020.

This is terrible if correct. So far we are about a 1/3 of the way there.

1 posted on 04/11/2020 6:32:20 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: Enlightened1

If true, you can expect a depression and an economic catalyst to extreme social unrest and maybe even the boogaloo. We have been missing A major factor like this to push it over the edge. It’ll happen very fast. As fast as the events of March 2020. The fourth turning.


2 posted on 04/11/2020 6:36:54 AM PDT by Levy78
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To: Enlightened1

And the stock market just had its best week in history.

Wall street doesn’t reflect main street.


3 posted on 04/11/2020 6:37:15 AM PDT by 2banana (My common ground with islamic terrorists - they want to die for allah and we want to kill them.)
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To: Levy78

President Trump needs to turn back on the economy.

Perhaps leave it locked down in high impact areas like New York.

The areas where the economy is open can still practice social distancing, wearing masks and perhaps no big venues? This until we know more.

To be frank as the real numbers come out and it is no where as deadly at Facui and Birx claimed. It will be like any other flu, virus, etc... That has always been around.

Shutting down the economy totally played into the Democrats, the NeverTrumpers, China and Globalists hands that needed an excuse of a weak economy in order to steal the 2020 election.


4 posted on 04/11/2020 6:42:40 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: 2banana

The DJIA is a six month outlook.


5 posted on 04/11/2020 6:43:10 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: 2banana

Keep in mind they are pumping money into the market via the plunge protection team.


6 posted on 04/11/2020 6:44:05 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: Enlightened1

Agree but the states, who hold the real power regarding these issues will block him. All he has the legal power to do is encourage them to ‘open it up’


7 posted on 04/11/2020 6:46:00 AM PDT by Levy78
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To: Enlightened1

Remember, these stats do not account for the actual Small Business Owners, Landlords.... People like me aren’t counted!!


8 posted on 04/11/2020 6:46:47 AM PDT by eyeamok
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To: 2banana
"And the stock market just had its best week in history.

Wall street doesn’t reflect main street."

Remember the Federal Reserve has pumped a couple trillion dollars of liquidity into the economy. That money is propping up the market. In the last 50 years debt has overtaken equity on the corporate balance sheet. Stock valuations have little relation to true assets.

9 posted on 04/11/2020 6:49:53 AM PDT by buckalfa (Post no bills.)
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To: Enlightened1

Yep there’s a reason the Fed is blowing their bazooka.
The internals have to be horrifying.


10 posted on 04/11/2020 6:53:40 AM PDT by hercuroc
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To: Enlightened1

Shameful.


11 posted on 04/11/2020 6:56:34 AM PDT by HighSierra5
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To: Enlightened1
47 Million People Laid Off By End Of Second Quarter

ZERO of them government "workers."

ML/NJ

12 posted on 04/11/2020 7:08:29 AM PDT by ml/nj
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To: Enlightened1

this Lockdown is a disaster of the worst proportions as millions and millions and millions of people are being thrown out of work

I’m no spring chicken and I’ve never seen anything as bad as this lockdown in USA

we can discuss if was ever really “necessary”... but now that it exists we SHOULD now (urgently) discuss ending it ASAP!


13 posted on 04/11/2020 7:20:24 AM PDT by faithhopecharity ("Politicians are not born, they are excreted." Marcus Tullius Cicero (106 to 43 BCE))
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To: Enlightened1

I agree with this. The question is: How does Trump avoid being another Hoover? In the midst of all this jobless carnage, can he be reelected?


14 posted on 04/11/2020 7:22:39 AM PDT by rexthecat
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To: rexthecat

Quote:

“In the midst of all this jobless carnage, can he be reelected?”

Re-elected as what? President of an impoverished totalitarian state? America goes back to work by May 1 or the country is done. Finished. Over. Dead.


15 posted on 04/11/2020 7:35:23 AM PDT by TTFlyer
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To: Enlightened1

Great news for the Globalists. George Soros is very happy.


16 posted on 04/11/2020 7:39:46 AM PDT by dljordan
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To: Levy78

THE STATES DO NOT HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO LOCKDOWN THE PUBLIC!!!

And I think it is high time for Millions of Deprivation of Rights Federal Lawsuits to be filed against thousands of elected officials nationwide.

Article 1, Section 9 states, “The privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it.”

Congress can declare martial law, because Congress alone is granted the power to suspend the writ. The President, however, is commander-in-chief of the military, and it has been argued that the President can take it upon himself to declare martial law. In these times, Congress may decide not to act, effectively accepting martial law by failing to stop it; Congress may agree to the declaration, putting the official stamp of approval on the declaration; or it can reject the President’s imposition of martial law, which could set up a power struggle between the Congress and the Executive that only the Judiciary would be able to resolve.

https://usconstitution.net/consttop_mlaw.html


17 posted on 04/11/2020 8:01:54 AM PDT by eyeamok
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To: Enlightened1

Isn’t the head of the St. Louis Fed that idiot who wanted to test everybody for the coronavirus every week or some such stupidity?


18 posted on 04/11/2020 8:43:59 AM PDT by CheshireTheCat ("Forgetting pain is convenient.Remembering it agonizing.But recovering truth is worth the suffering")
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To: Enlightened1

Doubt it. We’re at 16m now and starting to reopen.

All the hysterics who cried “30 million unemployed” were wrong.


19 posted on 04/11/2020 9:56:12 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Levy78

Wrong. Texas reopening already, AZ probably to follow, soon almost all states except NY, NJ, MD and CA will be open.

By July this will be a distant memory, the market will be back to about 26,000 or 27,000 and the most incredible boom in history will have started.

Mark. It. Down.


20 posted on 04/11/2020 9:57:26 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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