[cgbg]

Lookner:

Deaths in Italy back over 700, not good

https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1242498043594838017

[semantic]

Italy daily is back up over the prior two days, but still off the high on 3/21. So, far Italy has had two 2 down day periods before going back up. The day IT experiences 3 consecutive down days is when some alarm bells may go off.

Also, 33 day growth % still 6 points off first 24 days. That is, it would take fairly large increases to "move the line" back above 37%. At 31%, doubling rate is approx 2.3 days. With US 33 day projected at 25%, doubling would be closer to 2.7 days.

Dr W, with US 8 day projection pegged to Italy, model is now showing 2k cum total. And you predicted that earlier this month through experience/intuition?

		Italy	60.5		IT v US		USA	330.4	
Day	Date	Cum Total	% Chg	Daily	Ratio	Date	Cum Total	% Chg	Daily
									
24	3/15/2020	1,809	25.5%	368	3.5	3/23/2020	516	27.4%	111
25	3/16/2020	2,158	19.3%	349	3.5	3/24/2020	617	19.5%	101
26	3/17/2020	2,503	16.0%	345	3.5	3/25/2020	715	16.0%	99
27	3/18/2020	2,978	19.0%	475	3.5	3/26/2020	851	19.0%	136
28	3/19/2020	3,405	14.3%	427	3.5	3/27/2020	973	14.3%	122
29	3/20/2020	4,032	18.4%	627	3.5	3/28/2020	1,152	18.4%	179
30	3/21/2020	4,825	19.7%	793	3.5	3/29/2020	1,379	19.7%	227
31	3/22/2020	5,475	13.5%	650	3.5	3/30/2020	1,564	13.5%	186
32	3/23/2020	6,077	11.0%	602	3.5	3/31/2020	1,736	11.0%	172
33	3/24/2020	6,820	12.2%	743	3.5	4/1/2020	1,949	12.2%	212
									
	Gross differential				3.5				
	Population differential				5.5				
	Per capita differential				19.1				
									
Growth rate									
24	Days		36.69%					29.73%	
33	Days		30.67%					25.80%	
									
Sources									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

[calenel]

I think people are counting chickens a little too soon.

Patience. Vigilance.