[wastoute]

Yes, epidemiology. No measure of “velocity”. Because every epidemic ever studied was retrospective. Now we desperately need a measure of velocity and not one with a lot of initegrals and Sigmas. The truest indicator I can think of is how many days until the number of dead each day doubles. That’s what I am watching.

[SeekAndFind]

This graph shows three cases: r0 = 0.9, R0 = 1.0, and R0 = 1.1. You can see that R0=1 is the magic number: if R0 is less than 1, the epidemic is dying out.

If we want to control an epidemic, then, what we need to do is reduce R0. We can do that by changing any of the three parameters of transmissibility, contact, and duration.