I don’t get it, as to how the Joker movie affects attending other movies. I know Joker is a big hit movie. But aren’t there people who will go see both Joker and Gemini Man?
Or is there huge imoortance placed on the opening weekend, as opposed to the total theatrical run of a movie? Is that what they are concerned about?
I’m not an expert but like any industry they like to be able to predict the future based on past results.
An opening is important as an indicator of ‘legs’ ie longevity in ticket sales as well as the likelihood of word-of-mouth praise (or lack thereof). They’re also trying to divine what overseas figures will look like.
Cinema operators are still independent from studios for the most part and if a film is stiffing they aren’t going to waste an empty auditorium on it. And so a flop, especially a big-name or big-budget one, tends to implode even more quickly due to cinemas cutting their losses.
Some films get a chance to break even through DVD sales and streaming rentals.
Most movies take in a big amount of their gross on the opening weekend, often 50% or more. This is particularly true for movies that don't get good word of mouth.
If a movie opens soft, it's out of the theaters quickly, so a big opening weekend is important. It's also the reason studios go for movies with a rabid fan base (repeat viewings by the same people.) The studios are using Star Wars, Marvel, etc., to try to rebuild the old "Ma and Pa Kettle" or Hope and Crosby "On the road" type things, where they make movies more like an extended TV series.
Smith's star has faded, also, and a lot of that had to do with him pushing his no talent son as a major Hollywood star.
Opening weekend is the big one. Both in terms of revenue (movies tend to fall 1/3 every week, except for nerdy movies that drop closer to 2/3) and percentage that goes to the studio (80% on opening weekend dropping eventually to 20% on the fifth week, if it lives that long).
But the other big thing is time is finite. If you assume the Joker audience and Gemini audience have a strong overlap (which given that they put a Gemini trailer in front of Joker seems to be the assumption) most folks don’t tend to go to more than 1 movie in a weekend. Joker staying strong with Gemini flopping would seem to mean the shared audience stayed with Joker.
Yeah, you pay to see Joker at the Multiplex and then you sneak into Gemini Man with a fresh Tub of Popcorn.