Posted on 12/04/2018 2:46:49 PM PST by TBP
The Nationals have agreed to a deal with veteran lefty Patrick Corbin, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Corbin, a client of ISE Baseball, has landed a $140MM guarantee over a six-year term, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.
Patrick Corbin | Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Deferrals will reduce the true, present-day value of the deal, but it’s still a huge sum. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the deferrals will be relatively minor, though details aren’t yet known. There will not be an opt-out opportunity in the deal, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets. That’s one area in which the Nats will avoid giving further value. (As MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has explained, those increasingly common clauses convey sometimes-significant value to players.) There’s no word yet as to whether Corbin will obtain any no-trade protection.
It turns out that Corbin will not only top the $126MM guarantee achieved last winter by Yu Darvish,but will do so handily. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Corbin would beat Darvish slightly, grading him as the top arm on the market. That seemed an aggressive prediction at the time, with many other outlets suggesting Corbin would earn less, but his market took off from the outset with several large-market clubs driving the bidding.
The Nats ultimately topped the Yankees (who entered as the perceived favorite) and division-rival Phillies to get a deal done. It long seemed a match with the New York club made the most sense, due not only to need and spending power but also to Corbin’s well-known roots in New York. It turns out the Yanks were unwilling to move past a $100MM offer on a five-year term, per Billy Witz of the New York Times (via Twitter). The Phillies also were stuck on five years, per Heyman (Twitter link).
Corbin’s decision to head to D.C. represents the first major move of this winter’s free agent market. He’ll join Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to make up an imposing trio atop the Nats’ rotation — a unit that still could be supplemented with another addition. All three will be playing on nine-figure deals, representing a remarkable overall commitment to maintaining a top-level pitching staff.
This is the most significant acquisition yet for the Nats, but hardly the first. Previously, the Nationals lined up a new catching duo (Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki) and added a pair of relievers (Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough). Clearly, the organization is fully committed to a run at a return to glory in 2019 and beyond. The same can be said of much of the rest of the division, setting the stage for a fascinating remaining winter of dealmaking (to say nothing of the season to come).
Because he declined a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks, Corbin’s signing will trigger some draft pick implications. The Nats will cough up a second-round pick and a fifth-rounder as well, as they were one of two teams that paid the competitive balance tax in 2018. The D-Backs will add a sandwich round pick (after the conclusion of the first round).
It’s a big price for the Nats to pay, but they obviously felt it was worth it to add a 29-year-old pitcher who took major new strides in 2018. Corbin threw exactly 200 frames for the Snakes, working to a 3.15 ERA and — more importantly — looking every bit an ace in doing so. He ended the season with 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 48.5% ground-ball rate, leaving ERA estimators gawking (2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA). Notably, Corbin’s eye-popping 15.6% swinging-strike rate was orders of magnitude superior to his prior personal-best (11.0% in the season prior) and ranked as the second-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in the Majors. That occurred even as his average fastball dipped below 92 mph for the first time since he established himself as a full-time MLB starter.
The addition of Corbin at such a lofty rate will leave many to wonder whether the Nationals have moved on from Bryce Harper. The addition of Corbin’s $23.33MM annual salary will bring the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger to a bit more than $188MM for the 2019 season — about $17.9MM south of the luxury tax line. Obviously, adding Harper to the fold would tax the Nationals well north of the $206MM luxury line, but the Nationals demonstrated last year that they were comfortable crossing that threshold.
Beyond that, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has suggested that the Nats payroll could support both an extension for Anthony Rendon and a new contract for Harper. While it’s possible that the addition of Corbin could make it difficult to ultimately sign both Rendon and Harper long-term, Rizzo’s prior comments at the very least lend credence to the notion that both Corbin and Harper could coexist on an increasingly large payroll. Furthermore, as Janes tweets, the Nats’ front office knows that in order to retain Harper, ownership will need to make an “unprecedented commitment” and looks to be building up the roster while leaving a decision on Harper in the hands of the Lerner family.
I don't think this hurts the Nationals in their efforts to sign Harper. I think he's likely to wind up there, and so do a lot of executives who talked first to ESPN's Buster Olney and to Joel Sherman of the New York Post and MLB Network.
I’m sort of hoping they let Harper walk.
By any chance, can he throw a football?....
Yup, if I had to choose between paying Harper 300+ million and locking up Rendon, it’s Rendon in a heartbeat. No contest. Probably won’t happen, they are both Boras clients. On the other hand so was Strasburg and he signed an extension. I guess Rendon has at least said he is open to it.
Now they need Roark to have a consistent season.
Freegards
With three frontline starters like Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin, the Natinals are positioning themselves to actually win some playoff series—assuming they get there at all.
Ditto that.
Not likely. Buster Olney of ESPN talked to a group of executives and the prevailing opinion was that Harper will re-sign with the Nationals. Joel Sherman of MLB Network and the New York Post found the same thing when he talked to executives. FWIW, Jack Curry of YES agrees with them.
The salaries for Corbin and Gomes essentially replace those of Wieters, Gio Gonzalez, and Madson. They still have Murphy’s money and others off the books, and the luxury tax threshold is going up from $197 million to $206 million.
If the Nationals didn’t win with Harper and Soto, how do they win with Soto and NOT Harper?
https://www.mlb.com/news/nationals-still-interested-in-bryce-harper/c-301465556
They can do both.
Why Rendon?
Harper has said repeatedly that he wants to stay, and he openly admires players like Mantle, Ripken, Brett, Yount, one-team legacy players.
Harper tends not to be an impact player. He performs poorly when it really matters. He is also selfish and aloof and doesn't contribute much to the clubhouse. I don't think the Nats really need him, especially at the number he will be asking.
He can ask anything he wants to ask. That doesn’t mean he gets it.
I don’t think he’s getting anywhere near 400 million. The Yankees are not really in; neither are the Dodgers.
I’d go with Rendon if I had to choose between them because of the position and Rendon’s defense, plus an extension will be cheaper and maybe then they will will get more pieces. But it’s not my money, ha.
Rizzo says they can still sign Harper and extend Rendon but he would have to say that anyhow.
Freegards
He can always taken the hometown offer of 300 million/10 years.
Freegards
Chelsea Janes of the Post said that the Nats never expected him to take that. They were laying down a marker.
You seem to have forgotten Harper crashing into walls for the team.
If he is enamored of staying and winning at one place that much, he could always take it. He is the boss, not Boras.
Freegards
My guess, just based on normal decline in production beginning at age 30, is that Corbin will have three good years and become an unaffordable expense for his final three years of contract. It’s really paying $46 million a year for three years.
Maybe four, but that is the price you have to pay these days for a free agent of that caliber. If the Scherzer-Strasburg-Corbin trio can lead the team to a title, it’s worth the investment.
I don’t blame him either. I’m just saying that if it did mean that much to him he could have taken it and not tested the market. I think you are right, the Nats will probably get last chance to match/exceed.
Freegards
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