Posted on 10/15/2018 6:06:13 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX
Will do. Although I live in an HOA community so no political signs of any kind, Heck, a home for sale sign must go in the window. But I am picking a few up today to give to friends who are working and live in a different development that allows signs.
Absolutely!!!!
If these are complete state numbers and you don’t have areas only partially reporting.... Dems are heading to defeat.
Dems have to bank votes in early voting to overcome election day which almost always favors Republicans
However, with the Hurricane, who knows, as that certainly will have an impact on voting in the panhandle.
It is probably easier for you to fill out your Florida,”Absentee” ballot and mail it in from North Carolina, About five/six days after you have mailed in, you can go on your Florida County’s elections site (voter’s information) and verify that your vote was received and counted. Mailing your ballot in, I believe makes life easier from the hassle of voting on Election Day.
Just looking at Lee (large number of returned ballots so far). Trending much like 2016.
https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf
I know you’ve got this. Very informative overall - appreciate the effort.
Look at Hillsborough, St. Lucie and Pinellas. Those large counties have a nice amount of returned ballots also - very favorable comparison SO FAR compared to 2016.
Yeah I am going add in 2016 later tonight. I started with 2014 being the last non-presidential election.
Breakdown in 2014 of total absentee was 53.8 R / 24.8 D based on about 103.3k absentee votes. Rest was independent and third party.
So far 2018 Lee is at 53.3 R / 26.9 D. This was based on 34.3k votes or about a third turned in so far. Again no idea if this is a trend or the Dems cannibalizing future votes.
Those (along with Hernando) are where Rs are looking strong so far. And the very early trend isn’t so bad in some of the Dem strongholds like Broward and Palm Beach although very low turnout there so far (which could also be a good thing).
The ones worrying me the most are:
1) Escambia county. Dem percentage of vote up from 33% to 35%. Republicans still over 50%, curious what voter registration trend has been and how this looks compared to 2016.
2) Orange county. Dem percentage from 42% to 46%. Worried this is where some of the imported voters are coming from.
3) Sarasota county. Probably the most worrying of all based on numbers, Democrat percentage up from 36% to 42% of vote.
There definitely is cannibalization going on. You can see the final results for 2014 (Scott v Crist). Even though Scott had large absentee vote advantage, he only won by 1%.
Similarly in 2016, Trump’s absentee vote advantage over Clinton was much less than Scott’s in 2014. He still won by a greater percentage (1.3) than Scott in 2014.
All parties are now pushing absentee (vote-by-mail) voting and this is significantly pushing up the totals and rendering meaningless any comparison to 2014. Comparison to 2016 might be more valid but that too is starting to seem outdated. This will reduce the amount of early and election day voting imo (leading to quicker lines I believe).
My turnout estimate of 55% would be 7.15 million votes cast in this midterm. If it goes higher to 60%, that would be 7.8 million (unheard of for midterms but possible).
So we already have 3.03 million absentee ballots requested with 3 weeks left.
Yes definitely need to keep an eye on those counties.
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