Posted on 10/15/2018 6:06:13 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX
FL Gop offices have lots of new Desantis Signs as of last night .
The Blue Wave is a coming ,NOT
There’s no day to day comparison unfortunately.
In 2016, 2.7 million mail-in ballots were returned (3.3 million were ordered).
Total turnout was 9.6 million.
We are already at 3 million ballots ordered. Turnout this year won’t be 9.6 million. I think it will be around 7 to 7.5 million. It might be a little lower even - not sure.
Usual mid-term turnout is 50 to 55% and presidential year turn-out is 75%. 13 million registered voters in Florida. Everyone can figure out what turnout might be based on an educated guess of the percentage turnout they expect.
Except party ID accounts for more than 93% of all voters.
It is the single best determinant of a vote.
I have done some work comparing to 2014. I will post more in about an hour, but these numbers are not good at all.
These aren’t results. It simply states who’s voting. Of course you can presume GOP voter will vote a particular way.
POTUS, Donald J. Trump should hold a massive Florida political Rally near the Alabama/Florida state lines, near all the towns that were wiped out by Hurricane, Michael!!! Yes, POTUS Trump is coming to Florida for a major rally. Pensacola, might do the trick...POTUS, Trump can reach his loyalists and give aid & comfort to all those great people of Northwest Florida!!!
“Donald J. Trump should hold a massive Florida political Rally near the Alabama/Florida state lines, near all the towns that were wiped out by Hurricane, Michael!!!”
And he should have collection buckets at every exit for attendees to make financial donations to hurricane relief if they like.
Like 2016, you will have tons of Democrats voting for Trump candidates and the same goes for the Independents (No Party affiliation) voters. The Democrat, scum & vermin, candidate for Florida, Governor, low life, ultra Left-Wing, Democrat, Andrew Gillum is not the most popular dude in town!!! In fact, he is quite “dirty” (criminal), if you know what I mean!!!
I have done the comparison also. It is not an apples to apples comparison. Every election cycle going back to 2010, absentee ballots consume a larger and larger share of the electorate compared to early voting and election day voting.
Before it was primarily GOP votes used to using absentee voting - now it’s Dems and indies also using this voting.
This of course would necessarily affect ratios of who’s voting.
The sheer volume of absentee voters this election cycle makes moot any comparison to 2014. It appears that the usual early voting Dems are now using absentee ballots instead. This will be confirmed once early voting starts next week.
It is next to impossible to compare 2014 to 2018 and it’s even difficult to compare to 2016.
Iowa on the other hand - it is rather easy to compare to 2012, 2014, and 2016.
It could have been Destin or Pensacola which major population centers .
I think Rick Scott located in Tallahassee will make this a priority.
He is in a tight race with old horse face .
It’s leaving ;)
(I’m going to take heat for this one)
And those who didn’t make it voting dem.
I see rick Scott working very hard. I see rubio talking in front of cameras asking for hurricane assistance. I see Andrew Gillum smiling for the cameras. I see Desantis sending trucks and supplies to the panhandle. I don’t see Nelson at all!!!!! Not even a cheap shot photo to pretend he cares. I find that amazing. Voters will notice. Perhaps he’s to old to get out there and pick up a twig. I think Nelson goes down big time. And smilely Gillum will be seen as a political fraud.
Will the overseas military votes be counted?
You are 100% right. More and more people are voting absentee/early because it is convenient and in FL you can freely do so.
I’ve done some analysis on about 30 counties which encompass 95%+ of the votes. I am throwing out some of the counties where the absentee numbers in are so low they aren’t worth analyzing. The numbers don’t add up to zero as the difference is the change in independents.
This is taking absentee votes comparing R/D percentages from 2014 to 2018 based on votes returned so far in 2018.
Charlotte - R -1.2%, D +5.1%
Collier - R 0.0%, D +0.6%
Escambia - R -3.1%, D +2.0%
Hernando - R +5.7%, D -4.6%
Indian River - R -8.4%, D +5.7%
Lee - R -0.6%, D +2.1%
Orange - R -4.1%, D +4.1%
Pasco - R -1.4%, D +0.9%
Pinellas - R +1.3%, D -0.2%
Sarasota - R -3.9%, D +6.4%
It’s not catastrophic or anything, but the 30k lead in votes is driven more by the counties the ballots are coming from so far.
Fingers crossed .
I know FL posters were upset the offices ran out so quick.
I am from Georgia, and now North Carolina, but have a home and residency status in Florida. Thus, I am proudly one of fourteen (sarc) Republicans registered in Broward County. I voted absentee in the primary, and I suppose that is why I received automatically an absentee ballot for the general. But, I will be down there on election day. So, should I mail in my ballot or vote when I am there?
Hope the Panhandle GOP voters are able to find time to vote.
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