What A Korean Agreement Could Look Like | George Friedman Interview

Geopolitical Futures(Youtube) ^ | Aug 23, 2017

[TigerLikesRooster]

What A Korean Agreement Could Look Like | George Friedman Interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWaNko3tYyw

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!

[Sacajaweau]

All I can picture is a huge sea of glass.

[montaine]

The map would show the country of Korea. The trials would run for about a year. The new military force would be deployed on the Chinese border. One particular Kim family would have to be re-educated, and perhaps re-employed as garbage workers. Or just expropriated and sent into exile on St Helena. Dennis Rodman would be the transitional leader and chief US representative.

[Wuli]

I imagine this is a video clip of a write up that Friedman did on this topic recently.

He is a smart person, but there are significant holes in his plan.

[TigerLikesRooster]

The gist of his argument is that war with N. Korea is ultimately unavoidable, and contrary to what many experts say, China would sit it out.

The title is somewhat misleading.

[Wuli]

I disagree with him that China WILL sit it out.

I think that it is very conditional. It would depend on multiple factors when it starts and during its course. Also, any “victorious” South Korea would come under massive pressure from China to kow tow to it or face a worse enemy than North Korea and China has the huge trade between them for leverage. It could be a victory less sweet than many in South Korea might think it would be.

If China did, sit it out, I’d see it as China seeking to re-establish the old suzerainty relationship Korea had with the Chinese emperors for centuries; not for the true peace the folks in South Korea would think they were going to achieve.

[TigerLikesRooster]

There is no true peace between China and S. Korea on an equitable level. The real peace comes when China is weakened or badly distracted. As for the trade, it is a two-way street. S. Korea exports parts and materials which China use to assemble final products. If they cut out S. Korea, it will be a while before they either find a way to make them domestically or find another source. It will create lots of unemployed workers in China.

Anyway, for (S.) Korea to exists relatively unmolested, another country is needed to keep the pressure on China on the opposite side of E. Asia. A long time ago Turkish Khanate or Tibet filled that role(it used to be a big power on her own right more than a thousand year ago,) and now India could. China with badly stagnating economy helps, too.

As with everything else in life, timing is the key. Securing enough time of window to consolidate gains is critical.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Correction: Securing enough time of window --> Securing long enough window of time

[Wuli]

I am praying you are more wise than I.