what makes you think canada will be any better/safer?
Posted on 03/28/2017 11:28:25 AM PDT by SteveH
thread #1 here
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3537409/posts
recapping from post 57
begin recap
buying bulk contemporary usa silver dollars? plus bulk usa gold coin questions 3/27/2017, 10:20:27 PM · 57 of 59 SteveH to All
I got some coins today, 3/27/2017
how did i do?
gold (s. african krugerrands)
spot $1254.80
1 oz. s.kr = $1286.12
$1286.12 @ 3 = $3858,36
silver (pre 1965 dimes)
90% $88.00 @ 13.54 XFACE
= $1192.52
total purchase, gold and silver = $5049.88
right now hiding in cubbyhole at home.
thinking if TSHTF, it will be very fast, no time to go to safe deposit box (?) so keep at least some in cubbyhole at home (not in gun safe where robbers can get via threatening hostage)
gun safe is mainly for ammo only
may do 2-5 more purchases, same or similar amounts
need: enough to get 3 people from SF bay to vancouver safely if and when TSHTF
estimated cost: $6000/person * 3 persons = $18000
end recap
distance san francisco to vancouver, driving = 947 miles
-> ~$6.33/mi estimated cost of travel, land, TSHTF
(note: i am guessing that this is a somewhat generous estimate and that actual cost for someone who is capable of walking at a slow pace is somewhat less in practice, though need to account for all river crossings which could be expensive since ferryboats would generally be needed if the bridges are blocked or destroyed)
gold spot price 1990: $400
gold spot price today: $1250
rough increase factor, 27 years: 3 (1200/400)
3**(1/27) = 0.0415
gold in world, 2011 181800 tons
http://www.numbersleuth.org/worlds-gold/
gold mined per year 2500 tons
http://onlygold.com/FAQ/Gold-Facts-And-Statistics.asp
gold in world, 1990 129000 tons
gold in world, 2017 196000 tons
world population 2017 7.5B
world population 1990 5.3B
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#table-historical
increase in world pop = 7.5/5.3 = 1.415
increase in gold supply = 196/129 = 1.519
so i am about 1/3 of the way towards my goal of about $18000 in non-collectible gold and silver coin for TSHTF and hedge purposes.
should i continue in the same manner (krugerrands for large denominations, and pre 1965 dimes for small denominations)?
for small denominations, should i diversify into pre 1965 quarters and half dollars, or just stick with dimes?
apparently a good local coin dealer makes all the difference in the world, and if you find one, you don’t need to hassle with online ordering and wait for land shipment delivery.
according to the US government CPI, inflation 1990-2017 was 2.43%, not 4.15%.
http://www.dollartimes.com/inflation/inflation.php?amount=1&year=1990
IOW if the price of gold is to be believed (???) as a measure of inflation, the USG lies.
Hypotethical scenario: If i put $1200 of US$ into a safe in 1990 and took it out today, I could have bought 3 krugerrands in 1990, but only one krugerrand today. Who has the two missing krugerrands today that i could have put in the safe had i bought gold in 1990?
FWIW, I think Gold is always good.
I’d stick with dimes, which have the same 90% but can be acquired much cheaper (and of course currently sell for a reflective lesser amount).
if you want to know the real rate of inflation, don’t bother with the CPI
Perianne Boring
Feb. 3, 2014
forbes
yes, but what about dimes versus quarters versus halves?
therefore it follows that
* any “mattress” style paper money savings strategy loses real value at a rate of about 4.15%/yr
* any non-gold style investment should ideally beat 4.15%/yr (tax free)
Personally, I like the quarters and dimes because as a kid, they were money. WE HAVE used silver coins in our lifetime—and as such, many people understand it and will accept it.
Back in the day, we did not see many halves.
I think that the silver would be used for things like gas and bread. You need to make sure you can get “change” for the denominations you are using.
I think there is a common misconception—that you are “investing” in silver and gold. Thats not why you do it. You are not going to be magically rich overnight. In fact, if the SHTF your buying power will be limited as the supply of goods diminishes.
Silver and gold are stores of value. While the bread you are buying might be purchased for silver coins...the price is probably going to be two or three times today’s price in silver.
Technically, if you are buying strictly based on silver content keep in mind while all the pre-65 coinage is 90%, a silver dollar contains a bit more silver than ten dimes, four quarters, or two halves. An example of government seignorage in action.
$100 in face value for the subsidiary coinage is 71.5 ounces troy. $100 in silver dollars is 77 troy ounces or so. Of course either value in modern money terms is strictly the “melt” value of the coins apart from any special collector value.
Silver is very heavy and bulky compared with gold. If things get real bad, you might see gold trade at a premium or, silver at a discount. Why? Because wealthy people trying to get out of dodge don’t want silver.
Gold and silver are not investments, by definition. You are speculating, in currency. A foreign currency, essentially.
Don’t get me wrong, speculating can be very, very profitable, there’s nothing wrong with it. But it isn’t investing. Words mean things. You can also lose money investing. But Websters sez investing is “something other than money, designed or hoped to provide a return.” Like stocks, or a business or a rental property. An investment provides income. Just my .02c. In Silver ;)
Of course, if viewed from a real value perspective.
However, most common investment vehicles are viewed from an inflated US$ perspective, not a real value perspective.
I was merely taking the latter, common, perspective, over the former, uncommon, perspective.
As such I contend that the statement is valid since it is from the common and prevalent perspective.
IOW I believe that we are not differing in fact but only in the point of reference for neither gaining nor losing capital.
Do you think that that is significant in TSHTF scenarios?
Also I belatedly noticed the “XFACE” in my “receipt.” I think I may have been charged a rate based on face value. However, face value is not directly related to bullion content due to wear. Typically, wear reduces bullion content, so if i got charged “XFACE” then it was not a bullion rate. Argh. Is that something I should be upset about? If it did happen then should I change strategy and go after Silver Eagles instead of junk silver? Or maybe I would have better success asking for a lower selling rate for junk silver? I wonder if there is a typical wear factor for junk silver.
i am especially interested in my estimate of the cost of land travel if/when TSHTF.
Maybe a good visual model might be The Walking Dead on the AMC channel.
This is one reason why I am leaning towards considering $6.33/mile over mixed land and rivers as possibly too high.
From San Francisco to Vancouver I would have to navigate the following crossings:
Golden Gate
Russian River
Humboldt River
Umpqua River
Siuslaw River
Yaquina Bay
Siletz River
Nestucca River
Trask River
Wilson River
Nehalem River
Columbia River
Willapa River
Chehalis River
Quinault River
Queets River
Hoh River
Bogachiel River
Elwha River
Skomish River
Puyallup River
Lake Union
Snohomish River
Stillaguamish River
Skagit River
Nooksack River
... to the canadian border. that is about 26 major water crossings.
if all the bridges were knocked out or toll-controlled and presuming land travel was cheap enough to be negligible, that works out to be about $6000/26 = $230 per water crossing
I missed a few rivers in California
Golden Gate
Russian River
Eel River
Klamath River
Smith Creek
Umpqua River
Siuslaw River
Yaquina Bay
Siletz River
Nestucca River
Trask River
Wilson River
Nehalem River
Columbia River
Willapa River
Chehalis River
Quinault River
Queets River
Hoh River
Bogachiel River
Elwha River
Skomish River
Puyallup River
Lake Union
Snohomish River
Stillaguamish River
Skagit River
Nooksack River
... to the canadian border. that is about 28 major water crossings.
if all the bridges were knocked out or toll-controlled and presuming land travel was cheap enough to be negligible, that works out to be about $6000/8 = $214 per water crossing
What you want to do is find out what they are both buying and selling a “face bag” for, or any other bullion like product. This is known as the spread. Then crunch the numbers. They might account for wear in their pricing already by discounting or adjusting the numbers. They need to make a profit, keep the lights on. Then comparison shop. Check around. Depending on market conditions they will sometimes offer a buy price at more than spot. This means the market is tight and are actively looking for product. Remember they aren’t buying the stuff to sit on. They make their money on the spread. Also consider they don’t make a big profit. You aren’t buying kilo or 400 oz good delivery gold bars here. If they are selling small “retail” amounts you’re going to pay “retail” prices.
If you think things are going to get that bad, you need to be where you want to be right now. Not later. It isn’t going to work out like you think.
Countries that go through periodic crisis due to government mismanagement and corruption, silver coinage is way down on the useful list. If they think you have money you’re going to get rolled. You won’t be stepping over the starving bodies of your fellow countrymen who were unfortunately not as prescient as you to purchase needed supplies.
You’d be better off stockpiling airline sized bottles of booze, tobacco, coffee, and other “luxury” items. Soap, Bic lighters, etc. The list is endless.
I’m not saying any of this is actually a good idea, or is my recommendation, What I’m pointing out is what would be a better plan, using your own logic
Sometimes, we do not have as much freedom as we would want, and it has nothing to do with our own personal inclinations. We all have to make accomodations.
what makes you think canada will be any better/safer?
(1) At least it puts a border between me and the major source of anticipated unrest
(2) It’s not my final destination for when the SHTF, but i feel it is a step in the right direction.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.