Per Spaceweather.com
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2016 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
.......0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 25 % 15 %
MINOR 10 % 05 %
SEVERE 01 % 01 %
High latitudes
.......0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 15 % 20 %
MINOR 25 % 25 %
SEVERE 35 % 20 %