Posted on 10/24/2016 8:22:27 AM PDT by dangus
For discussion: Now that the Big 12 has decided to remain a misnomer, and rather spectacularly burned its bridges for the while, are teams like Memphis and Connecticut that are desperate to join a major conference doomed? If anything, the large number of applicants to the Big 12 shows that there are plenty of teams to form a new Power conference... but I assert they have to change their strategies.
Assertion #1: If you're not in a "power" football conference, you're almost certain to lose money on football. There are exceptions (Notre Dame, Brigham Young), but few. There's not only the cost of the football program itself, but enough additional women's sports teams to offer 85 scholarships to balance opportunity under Title IX laws. In a few instances (Boise St., Maryland, Utah), a winning football program has brought increased recognition for the school, and therefore more competition for entrants, and therefore higher academic standards, and ultimately a better university. But sticking that landing has meant joining a Power conference (or, in Maryland's case, looking like you belong in that conference), and it's starting to look like there won't be many opportunities to join the Power 5.
Assertion #2: There are plenty of teams to form a new power conference. The problem is they are dispersed among several conferences: the American, CUSA, Mountain West. (To their credit, the Mid American and the Sun Belt seem content with its lot.) But there's no way any of those conferences are going to become power conferences in competition with each other. And let's be frank, schools like Eastern Carolina, Tulane, South Alabama, Louisiana Lafayette, etc., are never going to be anything other than dead weight. That's not a slam on the schools, their football programs or their fans.
The key to a new conference, then, is for the teams that credibly could compete in a major conference to form a new conference, even if that means taking the expensive exit fees.
Some prerequisites: Of course, qualities of facilities; ability to invest in the program; TV, print and regional sports networks; fan base, etc will all be important. But there are others:
The schools are going to have to be large up-and-comers. Not Western Michigan, for instance, despite its current excellence as a team; it's always going to be overshadowed by Michigan and Michigan State. On the other hand, South Florida might as well be in a different state than both Florida and Florida State; notice it goes by "South Florida" rather than "Southern Florida." And Idaho is a quickly growing state that Boise St. could become the flagship of, despite U of Idaho's intended status.
Transportation costs should also be as moderate as possible. Part of the success of the Old Big East during its bloated years was that most of the teams were convenient to national airports, often with direct flights. Again, that argues against Kalamazoo, Bowling Green, etc. On the other hand, it means Navy, near the hub Baltimore-Washington International, could compete with an otherwise Southwest-leaning conference.
Lastly, it's better to have a small conference than a bloated one. If Houston and Boise State end up in the same conference, make sure they play each other every year. No-one wants to watch Houston play East Carolina or Georgia Southern.
The best new conference would start at only eight teams. I'd argue they should be
Houston,
Boise State,
San Diego State,
Air Force,
Navy,
BYU,
Memphis
Southern Florida
and perhaps Tulsa or Connecticut. UConn would just add so much to the conference in non-football sports that it might be worth having, even if I suspect that New England college football is never going to be huge.
Is there an argument out there for continuing to burn through taxpayer money to support football programs at non-flagship public universities?
When the Big 12 dies, it’s down to four conferences, which makes it nice for playoffs.
Basically the four remaining conferences will become mega-conferences, or for lack of a better word, regions. You’ll have the Southeast Region (SEC), the Atlantic Region (ACC), the Central Region (Big Ten) and the West Region (Pac-12). Each will have 20+ teams arranged into several divisions, with a Regional Semi-Final and Final.
Right there essentially is a 16-team playoff.
Interesting speculation, but unconvincing. If the Big 12 is doomed, then they certainly were deceived by the TV networks, which expressed a very clear opinion that the Big 12 should not expand.
The Big 5 conferences together have only 65 teams. Expanding all the way to 100 teams would dilute the Big 5 incredibly. Contrarily, smaller conferences like the MAC and SWAC have their reasons for existing, but teams like Central Michigan, Southern Miss and Charlotte would never and should never be in conferences with Michigan State, Ole Miss and Florida State. You’d never get away with rigidly excluding all teams outside of a Big 4. And being overly regional would kill interest in cross-region games. People WANT to see Stanford play Notre Dame. And are you suggesting Florida and Florida State or Georgia and Georgia Tech or Clemson and South Carolina be in separate regions, or that the ACC and SEC will realign?
The smaller conferences will probably wind up becoming I-AA teams.
As the number of twelve year olds allowed to play tackle football continues to plummet, I wouldn’t invest a nickel in college football, ten years from now.
There could still be intra-regional games. I suppose you could still expand the playoff field to allow at-large teams in so you could factor in strength-of-schedule in the mix for them. Say the four Regional winners get a bye, and the best eight remaining teams will get into the tournament. There’s plenty of different options you can do.
If you have Navy & Air Force you should probably have Army in their as well. Why not have all 3 service academies? They’re not going to run out of money.
I’d also look at New Mexico & Wyoming. Both are state “anchor schools” with at least a local if not regional following (and New Mexico would beef up the Basketball portion of the conference too). With basketball in the back of my head I’d probably think about U Mass as well especially with the service academies involved.
New Mexico St, Colorado St & Utah St also attract a following.
If you’re still here ten years from now I’m going to check back with you on your prediction.
That might be the best thing for college football in the long run. Let Bama and the P-5 pretenders be NFL farm teams. The rest can be student athletes playing for the love of the game.
The problem is the assumption that there are 5 power conferences. There are really just 4. The Big '12' Conference has no better shot at the championship than any other non-Power 4 team.
The best solution would be Oklahoma and Texas Tech to the Pac, Oklahoma State and Baylor to the SEC, West Virginia to the ACC, and Iowa State and Kansas to the Big 10. K-state gets the short end of the deal, TCU can drop down a level, and Texas can go be a Notre Dame, since it already had its own cable network.
The big problem with your scenario is that there weren’t two teams that the networks thought justified paying them P5 dollars.
There’s no such thing as “P5 dollars.” There were no two teams that the big networks thought justified paying Big 12 dollars. A 6th power conference would presumably fetch more than the American, but less than the Big 12 and far less than the SEC or Big 10.
>> The problem is the assumption that there are 5 power conferences. There are really just 4. The Big ‘12’ Conference has no better shot at the championship than any other non-Power 4 team. <<
That’s simply false. The Big 12 has its own TV contract, and at least five bowl big-money games against other power conferences. Contrarily, even if Houston ends up higher ranked than Baylor, Baylor will play in the Sugar Bowl, while Houston ends up playing Whattsamatta U. Further, although their weakness this year means they’ll have a hard time doing so, the Big 12 has equal access to the top four.
Roll Tide!
>> Let Bama and the P-5 pretenders be NFL farm teams. The rest can be student athletes playing for the love of the game. <<
In basketball, 80 of the 100 players ranked 25 through 125 are already committed for 2017-2018, but only a handful of the top 25 are. Why? Because the top 25 players are going to be one-and-done, headed for the draft after one season, and everyone knows it.
In football, there aren’t so many one-and-done players, but you’ve got EIGHTY-FIVE scholarships slots per team, and each of those 85 people on campus have little interest in an education.
The Tide defense (and special teams) has scored more touchdowns against opponents than has the offense of all the opponents.
(They call them NOT's, non offensive touchdowns)
>> probably have Army <<
Well, I was looking to teams that would be competitive. Plainly, Army could play their way onto the list. But another factor is geography: Army would require the other teams in the conference to fly into New York and travel to West Point. That’s why Army isn’t currently in a mid-major. They play their other sports in the Patriot league, consisting of all nearby colleges, Navy (MD) to Holy Cross (MA).
New Mexico is certainly a prospect for future expanding, since it’s a solid program and the flagship of a growing state.
If these schools had much value, they would already be in a P5 conference. Packing a bunch of these schools together is unlikely to increase their value. Even if the new conference got twice the money of any existing G5 conference, it would still be a fraction of the P5 payouts. The gap between the have’s and the have-not’s will continue to widen dramatically.
Yep. Defense still wins championships and it has been a blast watching Bama’s defense this year.
>>Packing a bunch of these schools together is unlikely to increase their value. Even if the new conference got twice the money of any existing G5 conference, it would still be a fraction of the P5 payouts. <<
Well, that would still double their value.
>> If these schools had much value, they would already be in a P5 conference. <<
Teams like Vanderbilt and Northwestern are simply benefitting from historical accidents. Other weak teams became notable because of the emergence of the P5 (Maryland, Oregon), or simply by joining the P5 (Louisville). And some are valuable despite not being in P5 (BYU, Notre Dame, Navy). Markets change... and if the P5 quits changing, then yes, there will be other ways of adapting to that basic fact.
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