How can forced updates and tricking people to update make this number valid?
They never claimed it would only include people who specifically asked for it. I'm not excusing it, just sayin', they are using every trick in the book to make that number as close as possible.
I would not expect any different behavior from ANY sales/marketing outfit that made some cockamamie prediction and then had to follow up on it. Microsoft's technical people are some of the best in the world. Their sales/marketing folks.... not so much.