Latest Polls Inaccurate, Primary Model Shows Certainty of Trump Winning Election is 87 Percent

Shift Frequency ^ | (I hour ago) | Bethany Blankley

[cba123]

Bethany Blankley – According to the Primary Model, which has projected 5 out of 5 correct forecasts of election outcomes the Certainty of Donald Trump Becoming America’s next president is 52 percent. The Primary Model also predicts the November election to favor the Republican Party.

(please link for full article)

[cba123]

For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996. In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January of the election year.

As a rule, the candidate with the stronger primary performance wins against the candidate with the weaker primary performance. For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.

[cba123]

http://www.shiftfrequency.com/primary-shows-trump-win_in-nov/

[Yo-Yo]

Color me skeptical, but I am hearing echoes of 2008 when FR was saying "don't believe the skewed polls, they oversample Democrats" and "there's no way McCain/Palin is behind, their rallies have larger crowds than Obama's."

I pray this Primary Model is correct, but I also pray we're not fooling ourselves again.

[Mjreagan]

It was correct in 1960 as well, it just didn’t account for voter fraud

[PghBaldy]

The amazing thing is if this is true, he did better than arguable one of the most qualified (on paper) candidates ever. First Lady, Senator, Secretary of State - if she were not a crook, and was warm, she would be a great candidate for the Rats.

[Artcore]

We need to send this to Rush...the man is lapping up all the polls showing Hillary leading. My guess is, Rush still has butt hurt over Cruz’s epic loss in the primary.

[jpl]

McCain would have won, but the string pullers didn’t want him and Palin in and deliberately wrecked the economy at practically the last minute to give it to Obama.

[cba123]

No way.

The entire media, both sides, both political establishments are all rooting for Hillary.

Trump however, has real support. Actual voters.

Just wait. This is media spin. Nothing but spin.

[Mjreagan]

More like 2012...Obama had some worryingly massive rallies in 2008 and there was little enthusiasm for McCain.

My concern now is while last time the ‘purist’ conservatives sat home that this time the squishy Republicans will sit it out.

[cba123]

This poll also, incidentally, showed Cruz losing.

Also Rubio.

Here is what was said:

“The model also determined that if Trump was not the candidate, the other likely nominees Ted Cruz 97% and Marco Rubio 77% would both lose to Hillary Clinton.”

[ScaniaBoy]

We know what happened 1960.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1960

[Mjreagan]

????

First Lady - who cares
Senator - nothing special, all candidates are either senators or governors
SecState - Disaster

Her resume is garbage

[Flying Circus]

And you know if I had some ham I could make a sandwich, if I had some bread.

[Mr. Douglas]

It was correct in 1960 as well, it just didn’t account for voter fraud

---

My thoughts exactly. I was going to post, but would have been redundant.

So, how’s voter fraud going to play into this one?

(it’s a rhetorical question)

[EDINVA]

Are you forgetting that Obama had such massive crowds in 2008 that McCain’s campaign actually ran an ad “celebrity?” basically showing he attracts huge crowds but is an empty suit?

[PGR88]

I agree - I remember the same hopeful “polls are wrong/corrupt/skewed” talk in last two Obama elections.

Unless there was massive fraud, it turns out Americans DO like big-spending, Traditional America-hating, fake, media-supported, socialist politicians.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

There is a HUGE enthusiam for Trump that WAS NOT there for either McShame or Romney with McShame WE LOVED Sarah were driven to polls by Sarah!!! With Trump there is a fire in the belly for his supporters I mean there is NOTHING this man can do that will drag them away from voting for him!!! HELLARY does NOT have this enthusiasm it is going to depend which side HAS this enthusiam and I say WE WIN!!!! I say TRUMP WINS!!!

[Georgia Girl 2]

McCain ran a disaster of a campaign, then took a dive at that town hall where he told the lady “you have nothing to fear from an Obama administration”.

[alloysteel]

There is a broad, underwater swell of support for the Donald, but people are just not admitting their sentiments even to close friends and associates. The so-called “unfavorables” associated with The Donald may in fact be significant factors in the unspoken calculus of many people, and not universally regarded as “unfavorable” at all.

Despite the constant drumbeat from the playbook the Democrats have used successfully for years against Republicans, The Donald is not “stupid”, not a racist, not a homophobe, not a “sexist”, and not “out of touch” with the common people, whatever that means. And experience? Herself has had perhaps one year’s experience, repeated some thirty times or so, and learning nothing in all that accumulated time. Oh, and Herself racked up a lot of miles during tenure as Secretary of State, but did Herself ever DO anything on all those long trips, except go on drinking binges?

[Kenny]

This is what we need, alternative polls outside the mainstream media. Just like our alternative media is only place to get the truth.