[cicero2k]

Advantage Trump!

1. three terms for any party is rare: only GHW Bush did it.
2. Trump blew out his multitude of opposition in the primaries. Hillary may not have even beat Sanders, or did so barely.

87% chance for Trump.

[GilGil]

Hillary may not have even beat Sanders, or did so barely.____________________

That is a very good point. Take the super delegates out and Bernie would have won. Hannity did a whole thing on this very topic. So there are a majority of democrats who know their party screwed them and we really do not know how they will react!

[scottinoc]

Hillary may not have even did not beat Sanders The nomination was handed to her on a silver platter from Day One through all the Kabuki Theater of the "democratic" primary.

[stremba]

You may want to put a timeframe qualifier on your first point. FDR and Truman won 5 straight terms as Dems. Before that Republicans won at least 6 straight from 1860 to 1880 (Lincoln twice, Grant twice, Hayes and Garfield).