The congressional districts are winner take all, so if Cruz wins 5 CDs and wins statewide, that would give him 33 delegates. Two other CDs are a tossup, with Trump only leading in 1 CD. So Cruz could even wind up with 39 delegates out of 42.
Emerson has been pretty reliable... I think they were the only poll that predicted Iowa for Cruz late in the race.
I hope they're wrong this time.
Trump has to have a big push tomorrow to have a chance.