Posted on 03/24/2016 5:52:51 AM PDT by Citizen Zed
Nate Silver: When I was filling out my projections, I was a little bit surprised that I had Trump coming up short of 1,237 since I thought I was being fairly optimistic for him in individual states. However, once you account for the facts that (1) there are quite a few uncommitted delegates and (2) Trump isn’t likely to do so well in less populous states west of the Mississippi, which is a fair bit of what’s out there — well then, Trump has to do really well everywhere else.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
I was shocked to learn that a lot of delegates remaining (in particular those in Penn) are uncommitted. That affected my confidence that Trump could get to 1237 also.
They ignore 54 delegates in PA (it has 71, not 17) because by some arcane rule they are somehow uncommitted. I have to believe most of them go to Trump.
I think he also shortchanges Trump in NY, and likely CA.
And those are just the three states I looked at. Silver works for the NY Times. They have an agenda.
Interesting commentary on the individual states rules here:
http://blog.constitutioncenter.org/2016/03/the-gop-nomination-math-confusing-and-complicated/
This guy’s math is fuzzy
Debunked.
He thinks PA only has 17 delegates!
Keep posting though...
This is from the same guy who thought Arizona would go to Cruz.
Also Nate has Trump at 695 delegate
RCP has him at 739 and I have seen others a little more/less
But 695 is the lowest number I have seen
This guy is a fraud
This AM Lindsey Graham actually said if it's Trump he'll vote third party, and it would be better to have hillary than four years of Trump!
These folks who don't either support Trump or stay neutral have to go. Example....Portman endorsed Kasich before the primary. He was already in a close race.
“Lindsey Graham actually said if it’s Trump he’ll vote third party, and it would be better to have hillary than four years of Trump!”
Lindsey said that? OMG. The GOPe really would rather put the gun to the party’s own head than let Trump do it. Sad thing is if Trump wins ONLY the elite “die”. If Hillary wins...AMERICA DIES as we know it :( This does nothing more than further my belief the GOP establishment is equally wicket as the liberal elites.
It just sort of hit me like a lightening bolt today, that Trump is running on a Tea Party platform.
I remember going to the rallies and thinking... these are not traditional conservatives... these people are just as mad about the cuts to medicare as they are about Obamacare being pushed on us, and they don’t seem that interested in social issues at all. They just want to “take our country back”... they are sort of nationalists...
Who does that sound like? TRUMP!
Trump is running a Tea Party campaign, but because the press has managed to damage the Tea Party brand, he isn’t actually proclaiming it.
You are exactly right. Trump is not the Uniparty, just like the Tea Party is not the Uniparty. As such, the Uniparty will sacrifice anything to defeat Trump. If that means the Republicans lose, that’s OK with them. The Republican actors in the Uniparty don’t care, as long as the Uniparty stays in power. The Uniparty will find roles for the RINO losers, as long as the Uniparty stays in power.
The Uniparty has absorbed Cruz - he is no longer one of us.
“Also Nate has Trump at 695 delegate
RCP has him at 739 and I have seen others a little more/less”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
In fairness on this point, Silver’s analysis was before the 3/22 primaries, and the 58 AZ delegates are in his projected subtotal in the analysis.
I still don’t understand how Silver handles the 54 PA delegates who are somehow uncommitted. He has none of these going to Trump, and that is not realistic, IMHO.
It’s really hard to predict the 54 PA delegates. PA seems like it logically would be prime Trump territory, but the state GOP is pretty bad news overall.
And in PA, Carsick is rising in the polls. But if I understand the structure, Trump would have to get a roughly proportional number of those 54 delegates, at least 20. Even by Nate’s analysis, that gets him to about 1228, 9 short of the 1237.
Makes American Samoa’s 9 delegates pretty darn important.
It’s going to very close and very contentious. We ain’t seen nothing yet.
Trump has about 750 (when Missouri is finalized).
NY - will get 75+
CA - will get 125+
NJ - 51
So Trump needs roughly 240 from the rest.
It will be close but I think he gets there.
Perception is reality. If this convention is contested, and trump gets bounced, whomever the party sends forth will have major PR issues with Trump’s base of millions of voters.
Chaos bitches...
What I like is that this prediction is basically worst case scenario - more likely he’ll eke out the number needed.
What needs to be stated is that Kasich and Cruz have NO chance to get 1237 delegates!
Cruz/Kasich/GOPe have only three goals...(a) dupe as many voters as possible to deny Trump 1237 delegates...(b) contest the convention and somehow win it with GOPe backing...(c) somehow try to win back the Trump voters and/or get the stink off a FUBAR convention. And hope Trump don’t go third party.
How many pissed voters will the GOPe write off from this debacle? A believe it will be a noticeable chunk. Enough to sway an election.
The GOPe will control the uncommitted delegates in Pennsylvania. They are party regulars and will vote however the party tells them to vote.
This is total BS. I don’t think the guy is counting MO in the 695 count and Trump is going to get way more in NY than is being counted. There are about 29 unbound delegates he can pick up from Rand Paul, Carson and Fiorina right now. I doubt he will have any trouble getting to 1237.
This Nate Silver character is totally anti Trump by the way.
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