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“Y2 Analytics did a poll in Utah showing Ted Cruz up by 24%. I have Cruz winning Utah, but I don’t think he will get 50% of the vote. The poll shows Kasich in second place with 29% of the vote and Trump 3rd at 11%. I believe the order of finish will be Cruz, Kasich and Trump, but Trump will get more than 11% and Kasich won’t get 20%.”

OK, so if Kasich finishes 2nd, but doesn’t reach 20%, and Trump does better than 11%, but not as well as Kasich, then we’re left with Kasich at 19.99% (at best) and Trump at 19.98% (at best). That leaves 60.03% of the vote left (at worst). So, unless someone (or several someones) other than Cruz gets 10.04%, then Cruz will be above 50% - just by the math involved. Rubio dropped out last Tuesday night, so he might have gotten a few early voters, but after that he likely got almost no one. He’s probably not coming in too high (and even this poll had him at 7%, with Cruz, Kasich & Trump at a cumulative 93%). So, how does Cruz - again, using just this math - NOT get 50%?

FYI, I am not a Cruz supporter (not now - I’ll vote for him happily in November if he’s the nominee), but a Trump supporter...so I’d love for Cruz to get any number under 50% in UT - but I don’t follow the math of it from your example.

Now, there ARE other polls, and they have Cruz at under 50% - but that is a completely different issue.