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Trump and Sanders have widespread public support, Hillary does not (to put it mildly).
There are reasons for this.
1. Trump and Sanders appear, at least, as outsiders at a time when the public is sick up to their ears of insiders
2. Trump and Sanders both speak about some issues that are seriously important to the public (or large segments of the public), sometimes they identify the same issues, problems too
3. While Trump and Sanders’ solutions or responses to those issues are mostly different... they at least represent efforts to address and mitigate or solve the problems.. whereas Hillary mostly represents a continuation or even exacerbation of the problems (no, you won’t grow hair on your palms from that, ha!)
4. Hillary is a money whore, she just took ANOTHER half million dollars today .. from the worst possible kind of source, too, another Muslim front group..
whereas Trump doesn’t need anyone’s money so probably won’t sell us out ... and Sanders appears (at least) much, MUCH more honest than Hillary, too, so many also won’t sell us out
5. Hillary has a terrible record of IslamoNazi affinities
just like Obama, and this is something good Americans are sick, tired, and scared to death of
6. Hillary’s Muslim Brotherhood-connected 24/7 girlfriend ....enough said...
and so forth
I think....that if just one and not both of these two guys (Trump or Sanders) gets on the ballot, some of their supporters WILL INDEED cross over and vote for that successful nominee, since he does at least address issues so many voters are concerned about....I do not see nearly as many Sanders people voting for Hillary as Trump.... I do see some Trump people voting for Sanders, yes I do, if Trump is not nominated (at least if it looks like he was “cheated out” of the nomination!)

anyway, those are ideas I hear from friends and neighbors...
they all do NOT want another foreign enemy agent in the WH or even an American who is sold out to our enemies (as most people believe of Hillary), and they do not want anyone who looks like “”The Establishment” (”more of the same destructive krap”)...

as good as some of these folks may or many not be, no more Clintons, Romney, McCain, Kasich, Rubio, Jeb, Pelosi, Reid, Ryan, McConnell, Graham, you name it... they are all on peoples’ S-lists

I agree with your analysis. I should add that the problem would not be so bad at this point for the republicans if the establishment had not tried to sell to the people that Donald is a racist and sexist. the Establishment likes to claim that it was Donald that started the negative campaigning. I don't know if he did but complaining about it is not going to be helpful because we are use to seeing the democrats demonize there opponents in the election. Another problem the establishment had was not understanding social media and how mentioning how you manipulate the public might be spread on the Internet. Right after before the first debate word got out about how fox was going to knock trump out using Mean Kelly and analysis by frank Luntz and other talking heads after the debate. everything happened as described and after that Fox News Management was transparent about its contempt this all came out in social media.

I am not a Trump supporter I want Cruz but I am telling everyone that wants a strong Republican party if Cruz loses we need to come together to prevent Hillary and if trump Losses we need to do the same. cheating either one of them will kill the party and make us discus the republican party the same way we discus the Whigs and the Federalists today.